Long-term unemployment and its regional disparities in Estonia
Date
2011-11-08
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Abstract
Pikaajaline töötus (töötus, mis kestab üle 12 kuu) on üks tõsisemaid sotsiaalmajanduslikke probleeme, millega puutuvad kokku paljud arenenud riigid. 2010. aastal oli Eestis rekordarv, ligi 53 000 pikaajalist töötut, s.o. 45% kõikidest töötutest. Käesolevas doktoritöös analüüsitakse pikaajalise töötuse kujunemist, töötute struktuuri muutusi ja regionaalseid erinevusi Eestis ligi kahe aastakümne jooksul. Analüüs on teostatud peamiselt Statistikaameti tööjõu-uuringu andmete põhjal. Eesmärgiks oli põhjalikumalt uurida, mil määral mõjutavad isiku pikaajaliseks töötuks jäämise riski elukoha regioon ja töötu sotsiaal-demograafilised tunnused. Analüüsist selgus, et pikaajalise töötuse tekkele Eestis viisid eelkõige struktuursed muutused majanduses, millega kaasnes kiire töökohtade kadumine ja töötuse kasv. Töötute oskuste mittevastavus tööturu nõuetele ja töökohtade regionaalse paiknemise mittevastavus tööjõu pakkumisele viisid töötuse kestuse pikenemisele. Vaadeldava perioodi jooksul võis täheldada kolme pöördepunkti, mis põhjustasid töötuse järsu tõusu: taasiseseisvumise järgselt majanduse restruktureerimisega seotud ümberkorraldused 1990. aastate alguses, Vene majanduskriis aastatel 1998-1999 ja ülemaailmne majanduskriis, mille mõju tööturule hakkas avalduma 2008. aasta teisel poolel.
Logistilise regressioonanalüüsi tulemused näitasid, et mitte-eestlastel, üle 50-aastastel ja eriti madala haridustasemega isikutel on suurem šanss jääda pikaajaliseks töötuks nii majanduskasvu kui majanduslanguse perioodidel. Nendel, kes elavad Kirde-Eestis ja Lõuna-Eestis on suurem risk pikaajaliseks töötuks jääda võrreldes teiste Eesti regioonidega. Regresioonanalüüsi tulemused näitasid, et sotsiaal-demograafiliste tunnuste erinevused ja regioonidevahelised erinevused vähenesid majanduslanguse ajal võrreldes majandusbuumiga, kuna töötuse järsk kasv hõlmas kõiki rahvastikugruppe ja regioone.
Selgus, et Eestis on mõlemad, nii isiku sotsiaal-demograafilised tunnused kui elukoht olulise riskiga pikaajaliseks töötuks jäämisel, mistõttu tuleks töötuse kestuse vähendamiseks rakendada tööturu poliitikas nii tööjõu pakkumise kui nõudluse poole meetmeid.
Long-term unemployment (unemployment over 12 months) is a serious problem because of economic and social costs, erosion of human capital and employability. Close to 53,000 persons were long-term unemployed in 2010 in Estonia, i.e. 45% of total unemployed. The current study examined the formation, development and regional disparities of long-term unemployment in Estonia during the period of most of the last twenty years, since the beginning of the 1990s until 2010. It appeared that structural changes in the economy along with skill and location mismatches led to long durations of unemployment. We observed that during the investigated period there were three main turning points that caused the rise in overall unemployment: economic restructuring at the beginning of the 1990s, the Russian economic crisis in 1998-1999 and the ongoing global economic crisis that started to influence the labour market in 2008. The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of region of residence and individual characteristics in the probability of being long-term unemployed, i.e. to find out what kind of people and regions are under the highest risk of falling into long-term unemployment. We analysed the Estonian Labour Force Survey data. The results of the regression analysis showed that the following groups were most likely long-term unemployed both during the economic boom and economic bust period: ethnic minorities, people over 50 years old and people with low educational attainment. A low level of education and the consequent lack of special skills and qualifications was the most important individual characteristic that prevents people from exiting unemployment. Higher rates of unemployment and long-term unemployment persist in eastern regions (North-Eastern Estonia and Southern Estonia) despite almost two decades of transition. However, the results showed a narrowing of differences between regions and population groups during the economic recession compared to the economic boom. As in Estonia both the individual characteristics of the unemployed and region of residence are important determinants in the probability of staying long-term unemployed, supply-side and demand-side measures should be implemented in reducing the duration of unemployment.
Long-term unemployment (unemployment over 12 months) is a serious problem because of economic and social costs, erosion of human capital and employability. Close to 53,000 persons were long-term unemployed in 2010 in Estonia, i.e. 45% of total unemployed. The current study examined the formation, development and regional disparities of long-term unemployment in Estonia during the period of most of the last twenty years, since the beginning of the 1990s until 2010. It appeared that structural changes in the economy along with skill and location mismatches led to long durations of unemployment. We observed that during the investigated period there were three main turning points that caused the rise in overall unemployment: economic restructuring at the beginning of the 1990s, the Russian economic crisis in 1998-1999 and the ongoing global economic crisis that started to influence the labour market in 2008. The aim of the study was to investigate the impact of region of residence and individual characteristics in the probability of being long-term unemployed, i.e. to find out what kind of people and regions are under the highest risk of falling into long-term unemployment. We analysed the Estonian Labour Force Survey data. The results of the regression analysis showed that the following groups were most likely long-term unemployed both during the economic boom and economic bust period: ethnic minorities, people over 50 years old and people with low educational attainment. A low level of education and the consequent lack of special skills and qualifications was the most important individual characteristic that prevents people from exiting unemployment. Higher rates of unemployment and long-term unemployment persist in eastern regions (North-Eastern Estonia and Southern Estonia) despite almost two decades of transition. However, the results showed a narrowing of differences between regions and population groups during the economic recession compared to the economic boom. As in Estonia both the individual characteristics of the unemployed and region of residence are important determinants in the probability of staying long-term unemployed, supply-side and demand-side measures should be implemented in reducing the duration of unemployment.
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Keywords
Eesti, tööjõu-uuringud, pikaajaline töötus, regionaalsed erinevused, regressioonanalüüs, 1990-ndad, 2000-ndad, Estonia, long-term unemployment, regional disparities, regression analysis, 1990s, 2000s