Security strategy of small states: the case of Azerbaijan after the Tovuz clashes of 2020
Date
2021
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Tartu Ülikool
Abstract
The main objective of the thesis is to analyze how a small state copes with a shock to its
security emanating from a conventional military threat. The author used a single case
study and chose the case of Azerbaijan after the Tovuz clashes. The Tovuz incident was
a shocking event for Azerbaijan since it created an imminent threat to the security of the
state and its energy infrastructure. The study seeks to analyze shifts in Azerbaijan’s
security strategy as a result of perceived threats from the Tovuz clashes. The thesis aims
to identify whether there has been a fundamental change in Azerbaijan’s relations with
regional powers and examine the overall implications of the Tovuz skirmishes on
Azerbaijan’s foreign policy decisions. To accomplish the research aims, the author
contextualized Baku’s reaction to the Tovuz clashes in the long-term trends of
Azerbaijan’s security policy. The author refers to the neorealist perspective on the
security strategy choices of small states. The qualitative interview with Azerbaijani
experts was selected as a major data collection method.
The study results identified a tactical shift to Turkey. There was a change in Azerbaijan’s
rhetoric towards Russia after the Tovuz incident. The perception of an imminent threat as
a result of the clashes and tensions with Moscow prompted Baku to further consolidate
its military, political, and economic partnership with Ankara. The results of the study also
determined that one of the major implications of the Tovuz skirmishes was the
reconsideration of Baku’s stance on the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Although the military cooperation between Baku and Ankara has intensified after the
clashes and there have been tensions in Baku-Moscow relations, the results of the study
demonstrated that Azerbaijan’s security strategy did not fundamentally change.
Azerbaijani elites proceeded with the use of hedging strategy in relations with regional
powers.