Military signaling & geopolitical instability: a critical geopolitics view of the NATO-Russia exercise dynamic in the Baltic Sea
Date
2022
Authors
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Publisher
Tartu Ülikool
Abstract
The aim of this study is to analyze how military signaling can impact geopolitical instability.
I explore this issue through a case study of the NATO-Russia military exercise dynamic in
the Baltic Sea region using a critical geopolitics perspective. Currently, NATO-Russia
relations find themselves in grave decline for NATO members and Russia possess inherently
different viewpoints about the European security order. Following Russia’s annexation of
Crimea and its actions in eastern Ukraine among other events, NATO members and Russia
ramped up their military activity in the Baltic Sea under the guise of deterrence. This study
finds that instead of contributing to regional stability, the NATO-Russia military exercise
dynamic can be considered a factor of geopolitical instability in the region. Essentially,
NATO finds itself in a conundrum where it must assure its most vulnerable members even
though geography is not on its side, therefore it must reassure its allies, rehearse
interoperability, and deter Russia. NATO’s balancing act affects how Russia perceives its
exercises. In contrast, Russia does not see NATO’s military exercises as a deterrent but as
provocations and at times responds with low level provocations of its own.