Lauristin, Marju, juhendajaPruulmann-Vengerfeldt, Pille, juhendajaVassil, KristjanTartu Ülikool. SotsiaalteaduskondTartu Ülikool. Ajakirjanduse ja kommunikatsiooni osakond2010-10-212010-10-212007http://hdl.handle.net/10062/15698Purpose of the study The purpose of the study was to provide comparative analysis to the voting experience of Estonian e-voters during the local elections in fall 2005 and spring 2007. The aim was to identify a social and political profile of the e-voter. Specific research questions where as following: Q1: What changes occur in e-voters characteristics in 2005 and 2007 survey results? Q2: Are there any evidences allowing a prediction of a future behaviour of the e-voter? Q3: What characteristics are statistically significant in describing e-voters? Method Empirical data was gathered using the internet-based questionnaires in both 2005 and 2007 surveys. Questions were presented to the public during one week after the election day. Total number of e-voters who participated in electronic elections was 9287 in 2005 and 30243 in 2007. A selection of 324 answered the questionnaire in 2005 and 1206 in 2007. E-voters were invited to answer the questionnaire through the online advertising in the Estonian largest newspapers online editions and information letters were sent to mailing lists including academic, governmental and private institutions. Additionally a representative survey was carried out among 802 respondents in which specific questions regarding e-voting was presented to the general public. Key findings Despite the growing number of e-voters they have remained technically competent, skilful at using computers and e-services and they have excellent access to the internet. Valuations regarding their computer skills remain high even among those who had negative experiences with e-voting system. Technical obstacles (such as the instalment of the ID-card reader or entering the e-voting system) seem not to have an effect of e-voters self-reflexive valuations about their computer skills. Contrary to our predictions, technological barriers are in 2007 even less significant than in 2005. Moreover, instrumental characteristics are improved despite the growing number of e-voters. These characteristics are statistically most significant in describing the e-voter. The level of political participation has decreased in 2007 as a result of a broader sample and a larger number of e-voters. Therefore, results regarding political participation are more balanced with the overall population. However, those who e-voted are still with certain political preferences and they are convinced that voting is something not to be missed even despite the poor weather. Additionally, the 2007 results have shown a significant amount of those who had not participated in elections if e-voting had not been present. Namely had we not had e-voting opportunity in 2007 elections the total turnout would have been 0,7% smaller resulting in approximately 4000 votes. If the future number of e-voters increases, the number of those who participate in e-voting because it is an comfortable way, the turnout could increase even more, predictably to 2,4% in 2009 (approximately 13 000 votes). Contrary to the general academic discussion, Estonian experience in 2007 has shown that e-voting has a moderate impact on actual voter turnout. It is important to note, however, that those who participate because of the new voting method are politically disengaged and therefore the engagement effect is purely mechanical – it is a mass effect attracting those who would not cast their vote normally. E-voters considered their e-voting experience positive and they would like to have an e-voting opportunity in future ballots. Even traditional voters are convinced that e-voting should be provided by the government in future ballots. The risks associated with the credibility of the e-voting system predicted by many technical experts were not significant. Since the experience was positive and the rate of credibility relatively high, the e-voter agrees to recommend e-voting to his friends and acts as reference partner to new e-voters. In fact, 2007 results confirm that the network of e-voters has increased significantly – approximately a half of the responded e-voters know up to five or more other e-voters. This situation allows the government to adopt methods of affiliate marketing in future electronic elections and this may support increasing number of e-voters. Very likely this effect will have an impact on the general growth of voting activity.application/pdfH Social Sciences (General)poliitiline kommunikatsioonvalimisede-hääletaminemagistritöödThesis