Dekalchuk, Anna, juhendajaAprasidze, David, juhendajaHutin, Ignacio EzequielTartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkondTartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut2025-10-302025-10-302025https://hdl.handle.net/10062/117208This dissertation examines the divergent electoral outcomes that followed military defeat in two post-Soviet hybrid regimes: Georgia and Armenia. In Georgia, the incumbent government was defeated after the 2008 war with Russia, a result consistent with existing literature suggesting that hybrid regimes tend to punish leaders after military setbacks. In contrast, the government secured re-election in Armenia after the 2020 war with Azerbaijan, challenging prevailing assumptions about the political consequences of military defeat. The central research question is: to what extent does a military defeat affect electoral dynamics in post-Soviet hybrid regimes? To address this, the thesis employs a multiphase, mixed-methods approach. First, it traces the evolution of public opinion surveys from before the wars through the subsequent elections, identifying shifts in voters’ main concerns. Second, it analyses media coverage during the electoral campaigns, with a focus on agenda-setting, priming, and framing theories, to assess how issues were prioritised or downplayed in shaping voter perceptions. Finally, it draws on expert interviews from both countries to explore how incumbents and opposition forces responded to these concerns and instrumentalised them in the campaigns. The findings show that the war's outcome has only a limited impact on electoral dynamics. In both cases, governments attempted to deflect responsibility by redirecting attention to other issues, highlighting achievements, blaming enemies or the opposition, and relying on loyal media outlets and state resources. The effectiveness of these strategies depended less on the defeat itself than on pre-existing factors: governmental wear and tear, support from elites, economic situation, international backing, the stance of civil society, and—above all—the strength and resources of the opposition.enAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Estoniahttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ee/magistritöödThesis