Optimal alcohol taxation in Estonia
Date
2011-10-21
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Abstract
Väitekirja eesmärgiks oli analüüsida alkoholi maksustamise põhimõtteid ning anda sellest lähtuvalt arvuline hinnang maksustamise optimaalsele tasemele Eestis. Lähtuti eeldusest, et optimaalne tase peab arvesse võtma nii alkohoolsete jookide väärtarvitamisega seotud kahjusid kui ka maksupoliitika fiskaalseid efekte.
Optimaalse maksutaseme hindamisel kasutati matemaatilist mudelit, mille koostamisel lähtuti optimaalse maksustamise kirjandusest hästituntud Pigou ja Ramsey maksustamise põhimõtetest. Mudelis eeldati muuhulgas järgmist: valitsus vajab poliitika elluviimisel lisaressurssi salaalkoholi turu laienemise piiramiseks, märkimisväärse osa alkoholi ostudest sooritavad välisturistid ning valitsus kasutab maksupoliitika positiivset mõju eelarvele tööjõumaksude alandamiseks või meditsiinikulutuste suurendamiseks, hoides sel moel eelarve tasakaalus. Mudeli empiiriliseks hindamiseks viidi täiendavalt läbi ka kaks empiirilist uuringut, mille raames analüüsiti alkoholi kuritarvitamisest tingituid liikluskahjusid ning hinnati alkoholi sotsiaalseid kulusid Eestis. Muud optimaalse maksutaseme arvuliseks hindamiseks vajalikud empiirilised andmed saadi varasematest Eestis ja mujal läbiviidud uuringutest.
Tulemused näitasid, et alkoholi maksude optimaalne keskmine tase Eestis on 50%-200% kõrgem 2009. aastal kehtivast tasemest. Kehtivast määrast rohkem kui 50% kõrgemaks hinnati optimaalne tase ka juhul, kui eeldati, et maksutõusust tingitud alkoholi tarbimise langusest ligikaudu pool tehakse tasa suurema salaturult või naaberriikidest ostetud alkoholi tarbimisega. Suhteliselt kõrge optimaalse maksustamise tase tuleneb eelkõige poliitika mõjudest läbi eelarvesüsteemi. See viitab sisuliselt sellele, et valitsusel oleks efektiivsem koguda mõnevõrra rohkem maksutulusid alkoholi maksustamise kaudu ning seeläbi vähem koormata maksudega tööjõudu. Tulemuste praktilise väärtuse suurendamiseks peaks tulevased empiirilised uuringud täpsustama alkoholi maksustamise mõjusid.
The aim of the thesis was to analyze the principles of alcohol taxation and to give a numerical estimate for optimal taxation level in Estonia. The intention was to account for both alcohol-related harm as well as fiscal effects of tax policy. In order to estimate the optimal policy, the mathematical model was built based on the well-known Pigouvian and Ramsey taxation principles from the optimal taxation literature. The following assumption were made in the model: to implement the desired tax policy government needs more resources to deal with the potential expansion of illegal market, tourists` alcohol purchases represent considerable proportion of local market, government keeps its budget balanced by using the positive fiscal impacts of alcohol taxation to reduce labor taxes or increase public medical spending. For empirical application of the model two empirical studies were carried out to analyze alcohol-related traffic harm and to estimate the social costs of alcohol in Estonia. The remaining empirical evidence required for the derivation of optimal taxation level was obtained from prior studies conducted in Estonia or elsewhere. It was shown that optimal taxation level exceeds the level prevailing in 2009 by 50%-200%. Even under the assumption that approximately half of the tax-induced reduction in alcohol consumption is offset by the increase in consumption of alcohol acquired via illegal or border trade, the optimal taxation level turned out to be more than 50% higher than prevailing rate. Relatively high optimal level arises mainly from policy effects through the budget system. This basically implies that it would be more efficient to collect somewhat more fiscal revenues from alcohol taxation and less from labor taxation. In order to increase the applicability of the results into practice, the future empirical research should specify the effects of alcohol taxation.
The aim of the thesis was to analyze the principles of alcohol taxation and to give a numerical estimate for optimal taxation level in Estonia. The intention was to account for both alcohol-related harm as well as fiscal effects of tax policy. In order to estimate the optimal policy, the mathematical model was built based on the well-known Pigouvian and Ramsey taxation principles from the optimal taxation literature. The following assumption were made in the model: to implement the desired tax policy government needs more resources to deal with the potential expansion of illegal market, tourists` alcohol purchases represent considerable proportion of local market, government keeps its budget balanced by using the positive fiscal impacts of alcohol taxation to reduce labor taxes or increase public medical spending. For empirical application of the model two empirical studies were carried out to analyze alcohol-related traffic harm and to estimate the social costs of alcohol in Estonia. The remaining empirical evidence required for the derivation of optimal taxation level was obtained from prior studies conducted in Estonia or elsewhere. It was shown that optimal taxation level exceeds the level prevailing in 2009 by 50%-200%. Even under the assumption that approximately half of the tax-induced reduction in alcohol consumption is offset by the increase in consumption of alcohol acquired via illegal or border trade, the optimal taxation level turned out to be more than 50% higher than prevailing rate. Relatively high optimal level arises mainly from policy effects through the budget system. This basically implies that it would be more efficient to collect somewhat more fiscal revenues from alcohol taxation and less from labor taxation. In order to increase the applicability of the results into practice, the future empirical research should specify the effects of alcohol taxation.
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Keywords
alkohol, maksustamine, maksupoliitika, matemaatilised mudelid, Eesti, alcohol, taxation, tax policy, mathematical models, Estonia