Voting along the ethnic line? Ethnic minority voters in Estonia and Lithuania
Date
2023
Authors
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Publisher
Tartu Ülikool
Abstract
This thesis aims to examine the prevalence and predictors of minority ethnic voting in Estonia
and Lithuania. The empirical results confirm that ethnic minorities in these two countries
indeed vote as a homogenous group. Specifically, they are more likely to vote for an ethnic
minority party, compared to their ethnic majority counterparts. In addition, it is found that
minority ethnic voting is more prevalent in Estonia during the review period. Seeking to
identify variables that can predict such ethnic voting behaviour, this thesis also tests two
theoretical models, namely the social identity model and the rational model, with individuallevel
survey data from Estonia and Lithuania. Drawing upon these two established theoretical
models, six hypotheses are formed and tested. The findings reveal that language serves as a
powerful predictor of ethnic voting behaviour in both Estonia and Lithuania. Moreover, aside
from language, an individual’s placement on the left-right political spectrum appears to be
another strong predictor of ethnic voting, with left-wing ethnic minority voters being more
likely to cast their vote along ethnic lines. These findings contribute to a better understanding
of minority voting behaviour in Estonia and Lithuania.