Sirvi Autor "Dekalchuk, Anna, juhendaja" järgi

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Polarization of public opinion regarding the EU in conditions of polarized national elite
(Tartu Ülikool, 2020) Shentseva, Taisiia; Braghiroli, Stefano, juhendaja; Dekalchuk, Anna, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Theoretically, elite polarization should lead to public polarization but it does not always happen. This Master’s thesis examines what factors lead to mass polarization when parties are polarized. 12 cases with high elite polarization and varying mass polarization in the EU member states were selected from the sample of 56 cases based on the national elections taking place since 2008 and until 2017. Using Qualitative Comparative Analysis it was found that public opinion becomes polarized in the conditions of elite polarization if there is a crisis at the EU level, Eurosceptics reached 10% of electoral support and either Eurosceptic parties are present on both left and right sides of ideological scale and salience of European integration in the party’s public stance is high, or media salience of the EU is high and people often discuss the EU political matters. The second part of the analysis was process tracing and it unfolded the mass polarization process in Greece from 2009 until 2015. It showed that a greater number of ideologically diverse parties that could effectively use the opportunity structure fostered mass polarization, while the EU crises, in turn, strengthened the opportunity structure.
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Post-military defeat elections in hybrid regimes: divergent outcomes in Georgia and Armenia
(Tartu Ülikool, 2025) Hutin, Ignacio Ezequiel; Dekalchuk, Anna, juhendaja; Aprasidze, David, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
This dissertation examines the divergent electoral outcomes that followed military defeat in two post-Soviet hybrid regimes: Georgia and Armenia. In Georgia, the incumbent government was defeated after the 2008 war with Russia, a result consistent with existing literature suggesting that hybrid regimes tend to punish leaders after military setbacks. In contrast, the government secured re-election in Armenia after the 2020 war with Azerbaijan, challenging prevailing assumptions about the political consequences of military defeat. The central research question is: to what extent does a military defeat affect electoral dynamics in post-Soviet hybrid regimes? To address this, the thesis employs a multiphase, mixed-methods approach. First, it traces the evolution of public opinion surveys from before the wars through the subsequent elections, identifying shifts in voters’ main concerns. Second, it analyses media coverage during the electoral campaigns, with a focus on agenda-setting, priming, and framing theories, to assess how issues were prioritised or downplayed in shaping voter perceptions. Finally, it draws on expert interviews from both countries to explore how incumbents and opposition forces responded to these concerns and instrumentalised them in the campaigns. The findings show that the war's outcome has only a limited impact on electoral dynamics. In both cases, governments attempted to deflect responsibility by redirecting attention to other issues, highlighting achievements, blaming enemies or the opposition, and relying on loyal media outlets and state resources. The effectiveness of these strategies depended less on the defeat itself than on pre-existing factors: governmental wear and tear, support from elites, economic situation, international backing, the stance of civil society, and—above all—the strength and resources of the opposition.