Sirvi Autor "Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja" järgi

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10 years of Nordic defence: the correlation between perception of threat and ambition for defence cooperation in the Nordic Council 2009-2018
(Tartu Ülikool, 2019) Henell, Elis; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Defence and security have during the last decade become an increasingly important part of the Nordic cooperation that traditionally has been defined mainly by the absence of these questions on the agenda. In my thesis I will look at ambition for Nordic defence cooperation and how the changed perception of Russia after 2014 has affected the ambition for it in the Nordic Council. Theoretically I rely on Stephen Walt’s Balance of Threat theory with the expectation that more perceived threat leads to more alignment. The choice of the neorealist approach is justified by first looking at the core of why nations align and then conceptualizing the Nordic cooperation in defence as a form of alignment. The empirical part of the research consists of a cross-temporal comparison of ambition for Nordic defence cooperation in the international debates of the annual sessions of the Nordic Council before (2009-2013) and after (2014-2018) the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, which has been defined as a turning point in the Nordic and European security environment. This turn should imply a higher perception of threat in the debate. Using thematical grouping of the data I identify patterns that help me measure the correlation between perception of threat and ambition for Nordic defence cooperation in Nordic parliamentary cooperation. By observing the data, I show that the level of perceived threat for the period 2009-2013 is low and the ambition for regional defence cooperation is high, while the level of perceived threat 2014-2018 is high but the ambition for regional defence cooperation low. I also present other variables inductively drawn from the data that might explain the changes in the level of ambition better than the changed level of threat.
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A legitimate practice? How the United Nations justifies the use of private military and security companies
(Tartu Ülikool, 2023) Talve, Marleen; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Private Military and Security companies (PMSCs) are important non-state actors with growing influence in international relations. In this paper, the legitimacy of the use of PMSCs is explored in the case of the United Nations (UN). Constructivist framework is employed to understand the legitimation of the use of PMSCs in contacts of international norms such as the antimercenary norm, states’ monopoly on violence and prohibition of use of force in international relations. Based on a search in the UN's official Document System and reports by the Working Group on the use of mercenaries, the UN officials have not given many norm-based explanations to their use of PMSCs and instead employ functional explanations while also framing the use as inevitable. Through the latter, the UN has managed to avoid the responsibility for making the decision of employing PMSCs and largely also the legitimacy of this use.
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A poststructuralist approach to strategic culture: Estonia's strategic response to Russia's hybrid threat
(Tartu Ülikool, 2018) Punthong, Wasin; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
This research has investigated how the hegemonic articulation of Estonian strategic culture mediates its strategic response to Russian hybrid threat in the information sphere. The study employs poststructuralist discourse theory as an intellectual framework and examines Estonia’s strategic culture as a discursive context. Poststructuralist discourse analysis is utilised in the empirical analysis of Estonian strategic texts. The central argument of this study is that drawing on the privileged identity of Western democracy, the hegemonic articulation of Estonian strategic culture has rendered a cluster of security practices in response to Russian hybrid threat appropriate and “normal”, namely the establishment of ETV+, the authorisation of Sputnik operation in Estonia, the partnership between Tallinn Television and Pervõi Baltiski Channel, and the public debunking practices. At the same time, such a hegemonic articulation excludes the illiberal security practices from the strategic frontier, namely censorship, nationalisation of information sphere and crackdown on Russia’s media outlets in Estonia. Therefore, Estonia’s strategic culture has created conditions of possibility for the minimalist approach to strategic response to Russian hybrid threat in the information sphere. The existing minimal strategic response is sustained by the concept of media liberalism. At the same time, the challenging political force is trying to disrupt the hegemonic articulation by bringing into play the concept of media sovereignty. However, Estonia’s strong Western democratic identity has prevented the latter from gaining momentum.
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Application of the European Union's human security approach to the European Union Monitoring Mission to Georgia
(Tartu Ülikool, 2016) Apriashvili, Mariam; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Vits, Kristel, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
This Master’s thesis explores the way in which human security agenda has found its way into the security practices of an emerging security actor, the European Union (EU). In this context, while the work introduces the human security concept in the realm of the EU, in particular in the framework of Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), the European Union Monitoring Mission in Georgia (EUMM Georgia) is being examined as a case where human security is put in practice. Thesis puts forward a set of three interrelated questions: Firstly, whether human security approach was followed by the EU in EUMM Georgia and secondly, how it was implemented. For this purpose, the six principles of human security, defined by Madrid Report of 2007 will be scrutinized and will be used as an indicator to measure practical implementation of the EU human security approach on the ground, in case of EUMM Georgia. And thirdly, it goes on to explore what was the rationale for the EU to opt for this approach. In order to account for this latter, the thesis applies both Constructivist and Rationalist theories along the human security concept in the framework of the EU’s CSDP, and argues that it is the combination of rationalist calculation and considerations of appropriateness that leads the EU to adopt a human security approach in CSDP, in this case in EUMM Georgia.
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"Be ready to defend to the best of your ability." Motivations of women to join civil defence: the case of Estonia and the Naiskodukaitse (Women’s Voluntary Defence Organization)
(Tartu Ülikool, 2023) Clemente, Cristina; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Critical scenarios have determined a rekindled interest in civil defence in recent years. In particular, Estonia has registered an exponential increase among women interested in becoming members of Naiskodukaitse, a women's voluntary defence organization. Against this background, this study suggests a different approach that goes beyond the mere historical perspective of the phenomenon. The aim is to investigate motivations that influence women nowadays to consider becoming members of these types of organizations. In order to find the appropriate approach, I adopted a sociological approach to study the phenomenon and formulate adequate policies to implement women's role in the defence sector or address further issues. Women are interested in contributing to their country's national security, but not by undertaking a military career, but rather by searching for different opportunities, more focused on the immediate outcome that their commitment to the organization can generate. The aim of this study is to investigate at what motivates women to join volunteer defense organizations. The research is based on the Estonian Naiskodukaitse, a volunteer defense group. The research design is a single case study, and data is gathered through interviews and an open-ended questionnaire. A qualitative approach is used to analyze the data. The explorative nature of the study corresponds to the qualitative approach that the researcher intends to employ. The study defines volunteer female defense groups, the responsibilities and services they perform, and how they vary from military forces. Furthermore, the study addresses how women are positioned in security studies, providing an overview of their transition from passive security consumers to active security consumers.
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Becoming a geopolitical actor: the discursive construction of the European Union by European Commission during 2021–2023
(Tartu Ülikool, 2024) Piiskop, Liisa; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, launched in February of 2022, has directed international relations and the European Union to a new era, inviting discussions about the EU’s identity and global role. Through resolute action among its member states, the EU has made significant strides in establishing itself as a prominent player in geopolitics. This geopolitical turn challenges established notions of the EU’s international identity as a “civilian” or “normative” power and, coinciding with a “militarization” of the EU, the idea of European integration as a peace project. Against this backdrop, the aim of this thesis is to find out if and how the war has impacted the discursive geopolitical turn of EU’s identity. It specifically explores the construction of the EU’s international identity and, more specifically, whether it has reinforced the geopolitical turn. As academic literature demonstrates, identity is a dynamic construct that is continuously modified by speech and interaction rather than a static trait. Discursive activities, such as the re-articulation of an identity in the context of a significant event or change in context, are crucial in forming and altering identity, serving as a potent instrument in identity studies, including the study of the EU’s international identity. Analyzing 267 political speeches by the Commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, this study employs both corpus analysis and critical discourse analysis (CDA) to detect changes in the discourse from a time period of one year pre-war to one year into the war. The research reveals a strategic depiction of "self" (EU) as a bearer of democracy contrasted against the "other" (Russia and Belarus), framed as aggressors. The findings underscore a narrative shift from global concerns, as they were characteristic of the EU’s international identity, to themes of security, defence, and geopolitical dynamics, particularly emphasizing strengthened alliances, notably with the US, and a push towards strategic autonomy. This shift is marked by an increased focus on borders, military aspects and diplomatic relations. Together, these features and renewed emphasis on geopolitical identity markers suggest a strengthening of the geopolitical identity of the EU. Furthermore, the study discusses the implications of this re-articulation of the EU’s identity into a more geopolitical actor, suggesting that the discursive shifts triggered by the war catalyzed a more autonomous EU stance, diverging from its traditionally civilian-focused identity. With these findings, the thesis contributes to the broader discussion on how significant international events reshape identities and policy orientations, providing insights that are crucial for policymakers and scholars in understanding the evolving nature of the EU in the face of crises.
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Beyond ecclesiastical nationalism: agency and selfhood in the Orthodox world – the constellations of contemporary Macedonia and Moldova
(Tartu Ülikool, 2019) Kolov, Bojidar; Kilp, Alar, juhendaja; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Against the background of an innate imperative for ecclesial unity, the intensifying antagonistic plurality of the Orthodox Church poses an array of research questions. The continuous social relevance of Orthodoxy, as well as the general entanglement of political and religious identities in a number of societies make these research questions not only relevant to theology and ecclesiology, but also to political studies. The current account aims to address one of the fundamental problems of modern Orthodox ecclesiastical governance and that is the issue of Selfhood and agency. Previous literature has linked Orthodox jurisdictional subjectivity with the advent of the modern nation state. Indeed, the institutional architecture of the majority of Orthodox Churches today is almost inextricably connected with this paradigm of political and social organization. However, the link between nation and state on one hand and ecclesiastical particularity on the other proves to be far from universal. In the light of unexplainable from nation-centric perspective cases, the current study attempts to provide an alternative ontology for ecclesiastical Selfhood and agency. The scope of the project covers the contemporary ecclesiastical dynamics in two comparable constellations, these of Macedonia and Moldova. Based on constructivist and poststructuralist theoretical and methodological premises, the study focuses on the discursive practices related with the establishment and/or contestation of ecclesiastical institutions. The analytical comparison between the public discourses, produced by the competing jurisdictions in the two countries, outlines three key articulations crucial for the emergence of particular Orthodox Churches. A nascent ecclesiastical Subject is constructed through an identification with a radical social object/discourse, by articulation of a representative role vis-à-vis certain social group, and by narrating the existing power relations as unjust and/or meaningless. If generalized, these findings put forward a new perspective on the emancipatory and hegemonic practices, which modern Orthodox ecclesiastical governance involves.
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Beyond Europeanisation: contestation and localisation of gender equality and LGBT norms in Georgia
(Tartu Ülikool, 2025) Urban, Frederik; Gavashelishvili, Elene, juhendaja; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
This thesis looks at the puzzling implementation of European Union-promoted gender equality and Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Trans norms in Georgia in the period from 2014 to 2024. The research is set out to explain the puzzle of Georgia’s strong societal European Union support and political commitment towards the European Union, on the one hand, and contradictory legislation and anti-European Union rhetoric on the other hand. By investigating domestic dynamics and local actors, the thesis explains this puzzling behaviour of hybrid implementation of externally promoted norms concerning gender-based violence, women's economic empowerment, and Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Trans rights. To answer the puzzle, the analysis adopts a framework based on Europeanisation theory but improved by incorporating literature on norm contestation and localisation. The advantage of this created framework is to bring domestic actors and their actions of localising or contesting norms to the centre of attention. Accordingly, the domestic agency is seen as more than passive norm recipients. In this way it becomes possible to see how external norms are shaped by local agents, which explains the outcomes observable in Georgia. The qualitative data was collected from semi-structured interviews with local experts from civil society, academia, and international organisations. The findings of the thesis show that the main driver of the observed outcomes is the strategic agency of domestic actors. On the one hand, state and religious actors engage in “validity contestation”, framing gender equality norms, and especially those related to sexual minorities, as a threat to Georgia’s identity and sovereignty. As a result, the government engages in legislative “decoupling”, formally complying with European Union-promoted norms while restricting the actual legislative impact. On the other hand, civil society actors use the public space they have, to use localisation strategies to create norms based on European Union norms but adapted to the local context. Ultimately, the study shows that external incentives can influence the direction of a country. However, without strong societal and political support behind adopted changes, it is an easy task for political actors to revert once introduced changes.
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Beyond neutrality: the role of identity in Irish defence and security policy
(Tartu Ülikool, 2024) Deasy, Cian; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Yüksel, Izzet Yalin, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
What lies behind Ireland’s anomalous approach to its defence and security policy? Why does a state which is otherwise politically aligned and integrated with its regional neighbours behave so differently, investing and cooperating to such limited extents, where defence and security are concerned? This is a question which has not garnered significant academic attention, and one the body of scholarship produced to date has struggled to answer. This study departs from the approach of previous scholarship in examining Irish behaviour through the lens of ontological security. By analysing elite Irish discourse on defence and security between 2014 and 2023, it illustrates the link between Irish identity constructions and policymaking in the defence and security sphere, highlighting the discursive ‘field of action’ generated for elite decision-makers by Ireland’s sense of self as an actor in the international community. It alleges that this sense of self perceives Ireland as a peace promoter and moral authority, one which is not entirely included in the Western European security space, and that such an identity precludes Ireland from shaping its policy in a manner similar to that of other Western European states. Prior to 2022, Irish ontological security was preserved through the maintenance of low military capability and limited international cooperation: from 2022, amid Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Irish ‘field of action’ is found to have partially expanded to incorporate greater scope for investment and cooperation, but with the underlying identity tenets remaining the same.
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Communicating the European Union in Crisis: European Commission crisis communication and its consequences for reputation and legitimacy
(Tartu Ülikool, 2018) Pai, Tiina; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Vanamölder, Kaarel, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
The past decade has been crisis ridden for the EU. In addition to the immediate influence, crises damage reputation and legitimacy, by crisis communication this harm can be alleviated. EC, the communicator on the supranational level, acting in the name of the whole EU, has had to deal with these situations. This thesis views the crisis communication strategies EC uses in three recent and prominent crises: Greek government-debt crisis, migration crisis and Brexit. Adding the tools offered by situational crisis communication theory by Coombs and image repair theory by Benoit to the European studies’ general framework, the author, using the methods of discourse analyses, researches EC crisis communication and the social consequences of it for the reputation and legitimacy of EC and EU. By analysing 231 speeches by the President of the EC and by the commissioners responsible for the most affected policy field in the crisis, the crisis communication strategies are identified. Looking at media response and public opinion, the findings suggest that crisis communication contributes to shaping the context within which the social consequences regarding reputation/legitimacy can occur.
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Comparative analysis of the localization of international cyber security norms: Estonia and Israel
(Tartu Ülikool, 2025) Suuster, Riin; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
This dissertation presents a comparative analysis of the localization of international cybersecurity norms in Estonia and Israel, focusing in particular on the Budapest Convention on Cybercrime (2001). The main research question of the dissertation is: what explains the variation of implementation of the norms of the Budapest Convention in the Estonian and Israeli contexts? It is explored through a constructivist approach to norms in International Relations theory and operationalizes a theoretical framework that defines conditions for successful norm localization and outlines a spectrum of norm localization outcomes that can be observed in three dimensions: translation in domestic discourse, translation in law, and translation in implementation. To empirically answer the research question, the thesis applies the Small-N Most Similar System Design (MSSD), a comparative method chosen to isolate the factors that cause the variation in norm localization in the two cases. The analysis itself reveals different trajectories in Estonia and Israel. Estonia mostly shows a pattern of full adoption of the provisions of the Budapest Convention. In contrast, Israel has a clear pattern of reinterpretation. Israel has often selectively modified provisions or maintained reservations based on national priorities, whilst Estonia has adopted the provisions with minor changes. The thesis concludes that while both countries have active norm entrepreneurs and capable investigation units, the main reason for the differences in localization types between Estonia (full adoption) and Israel (reinterpretation) in regards to the Convention is due to differences in domestic legislation. This dissertation over all attempts to contribute to the understanding of the localization of international norms as a complex and uneven process, significantly shaped by domestic legislation not just the presence of supporting actors or implementation capacity. Further research could explore the development of norm entrepreneurs' discourse or extend the comparison to other countries.
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Deterrence-terrorism: the use of strategic terrorism as the basis of deterrence in theory and in the case of Hezbollah-Israel, 2006-2020
(Tartu Ülikool, 2020) Elgindy, Mahmoud Ahmed; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Maskaliūnaitė, Asta, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
This thesis seeks to examine the dynamics of strategic terrorism when implemented in the pursuit of deterrent, rather than compellent effects. In doing to so, it addresses a gap in the theoretical literature concerning terrorism as a coercive strategy. The focus of existing studies on compellent terrorism, to the neglect of its potential for deterrence, results in an inability to understand how terrorism may be used to sustain the status-quo. This theoretical consideration is reflected in an empirical case of deterrence, as identified in inductive studies. The study of Hezbollah’s strategy of deterrence vis-à-vis Israel in the years since 2006 features both threats of terrorist violence by Hezbollah, and military restraint on part of Israel. Against this background, the aims of this thesis are twofold; theoretically, to examine if threats of terrorism can be used to pursue deterrent effects. In other words, to conceptually distinguish the novel subtype deterrence-terrorism, to stand alongside existing nuclear and conventional deterrence. To assess the analytical utility of the concept, this study seeks to examine if deterrence-terrorism can explain the deterrent dynamic between Hezbollah and Israel from 2006-2020. This thesis seeks to solve the question of terrorism’s deterrent potential through theory building in the form of deductive reasoning. Herein a novel concept; deterrence-terrorism is proposed to clarify the implications of existing theory in cases where threats are formed through terrorism. In this study, terrorism, defined here as violent, extra-normal and symbolic actions, was applied to the abstract framework of deterrence in accepted theory. Empirically and in pursuit of confirming utility, this concept of deterrence-terrorism was then applied in a theory driven plausibility probe, examining if deterrence-terrorism by Hezbollah has caused military restraint by Israel. This thesis found that the influence of threats through terrorism on the general deterrence practices of forming a credible threat and signalling are sufficient bases for the consideration of deterrence through terrorism as unique type, alongside existing nuclear and conventional architypes. In the case of Hezbollah and Israel from 2006-2020, empirical analysis suggests necessary evidence is present that deterrence-terrorism has caused military restraint in the studied period. As a result, the analytical utility of deterrence-terrorism is confirmed.
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Divergent understandings regarding the “strategic autonomy of the European Union”: a result of the plurality of strategic cultures among the member states
(Tartu Ülikool, 2019) Pals, Peeter; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Kuusik, Piret, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
In the recent years, the strategic autonomy of the European Union (EU) has become one of the buzzwords when it comes to the defence cooperation of the EU. However, even though that all EU Member States have agreed with the goal in a way that it can be found in the strategic documents, such as the Global Strategy of the EU, in practice the Member States seem to have somewhat different positions and understandings regarding it when it comes to implementation, yet it has received little scholarly attention. This study aims to tackle this issue and sets out to first, provide empirical insights to map the different understandings in an empirically grounded way and second, explain the occurrence of such differences through the various elements of national strategic cultures. In order to explore this link between the understandings of strategic autonomy and the specifics of national strategic cultures, this study relies on data collected through a series of semi-structured interviews with the security specialists and government officials from five EU Member States that reflect the whole spectrum of Europeanist/Atlanticist divide among the Member States when it comes to strategic orientation. The findings of this thesis show that first, the understandings of strategic autonomy are indeed different among the Member States to a certain extent and second, the differences in understandings and concerns can indeed be explained through the plurality of strategic cultures among the EU Member States. However, adding more nuance to the existing literature highlighting the differences in understandings, this study finds that while there are certain differences in understandings, there are more differences when it comes to fears and concerns regarding the possible outcomes of the goal. While all elements of strategic culture reflect in the understandings of EU (or European) strategic autonomy in a certain way, then the major driver for the division among the Member States is the strategic orientation (Europeanist/Atlanticist divide).
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European Union small member states in the United Nations Security Council: a case of Europeanization of foreign policy
(Tartu Ülikool, 2021) Khrapunenko, Mariia; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Representation on the international arena has always been important for the European Union (EU), especially when it comes to international organizations as they are the main field for global decision-making. Particularly interesting has been EU representation in the United Nations (UN) and more specifically in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), where only nation-states can be formal members. The restrictive for the EU legal set-up of the UNSC has left only one possibility for the EU voice to be heard – through its Member States (MSs). However, the questions remain: what MS is more likely to informally represent the EU positions, what causes it and to what level the MS will do it. Using the institutional-constructivist approach to the phenomenon of socialization. This thesis seeks to explain the difference in levels of informal representation of the EU positions aiming to find out what role the state size has on the level of socialization that leads to the informal representation of the EU positions. The study draws on original data from 10 interviews with the representatives of the selected EU MSs delegations (Portugal 2011-2012, Germany 2011-2012, Germany 2019-2020, and Estonia 2020-2021) to the UNSC to, first, establish the level of socialization for each of them and understand what differences (if any) there are between them. Second, it seeks to establish what scope of interest each of the selected countries had prior to joining the UNSC and build a link between the level of socialization and the respective state size. Then, the research aims to find out what level of informal representation of the EU positions each of the EU MS in the focus of this research had. This study arrives at two key findings. First, the results show that the state size does not have effect on the level of socialization of the EU MS. Second, the level of informal representation of the EU positions does not depend on the level of socialization that the EU MSs had prior to representing their national positions. It is apparent that the level of representation of the EU positions is largely defined by the importance that the EU MS attributes to representing the EU. Therefore, this thesis opens prospects for further studies of the topic.
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Europeanisation of foreign policy in the Western Balkans: explaining the change in North Macedonia’s alignment with the EU sanctions against Russia (2014-2022)
(Tartu Ülikool, 2024) Bobrovnikova, Ekaterina; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Braghiroli, Stefano, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
This thesis investigates the puzzling change in North Macedonia’s alignment with the EU’s restrictive measures against Russia between 2014 and 2022, which diverged from the stable positions of other countries in the Western Balkan region. Drawing on the Europeanisation literature, the thesis tests three alternative causal mechanisms to explain North Macedonia’s change in alignment: external incentives model, role-playing, and thick socialisation. By applying the process-tracing method, the thesis reaches a conclusion that role-playing was the most likely mechanism behind North Macedonia’s change in alignment. North Macedonia demonstrated partial ambiguity of alignment process, meaning that no tangible reward was provided by the EU in exchange for sanctions alignment and also no full match in norms and identities was present to support such action. Moreover, the automatic nature of CFSP alignment was found due to previous high rates of alignment, together with political actors’ references to North Macedonia’s social role as a candidate country in justifying alignment with EU sanctions against Russia. In light of the empirical evidence, this thesis concludes that the role-playing mechanism is the most likely explanation. The findings demonstrate that in the context of foreign policy Europeanisation, role-playing, in a characteristic instrumental form, can drive alignment of candidate countries.
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Examining variation in counter-terrorism listing regimes
(Tartu Ülikool, 2017) Worth, Andrew; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
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Exit, voice and loyalty as responses to dissatisfaction with international regimes; comparing responses of Turkey and Poland to Istanbul Convention
(Tartu Ülikool, 2022) Sarioglu, Emel Almira; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Cooperation in anarchic international politics has been one of the most widely debated topics in the International Relations discipline. While some scholars investigated the underlying motives to understand the cooperation (Keohane, 1984; Galbreath, 2009), others tried to analyze the incentive of not participating (Slapin, 2009; Lavelle, 2007; von Borzyskowski & Vabulas, 2019). While trying to understand the incentive of not participating, each researcher identified one and repeated motive; dissatisfaction. According to Hirschman (1970) actors would respond to dissatisfaction in three different ways; an actor can exit , it can voice its dissatisfaction or it can simply remain loyal . In this study, Hirschman’s theory will be adapted to international relations to understand the variety of responses with dissatisfied regimes. This study puts out the hypothesis that type of response will be affected by the level of combined costs of anticipated audience cost and reputation cost. This hypothesis is tested by conducting comparative research between Turkey and Poland in the context of dissatisfaction with the Istanbul Convention. The analysis shows that a ‘high’ level of combined costs will lead states to make milder decisions while still expressing their dissatisfaction, such as ‘voice’ whereas, te ‘low’ or ‘medium’ level of combined costs suggests that states are more likely to take more drastic actions such as ‘exit’. This result of the study helps researchers to identify reasons that lead states to respond in varying ways to international regimes, even though they are considered as ‘golden standards’ for every state just like the IC (Amnesty International, 2021b).
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Explaining neutrality: the cases of Turkmenistan and Ukraine
(Tartu Ülikool, 2018) Poliakova, Daria; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Neutrality has always brought attention of scholars and politicians as well. Recent events in Ukraine and further debates on Ukraine’s alignment status have once again sparked interest to exploring this concept and the reasons for a state to adopt a neutral stance. The aim of this study is to contribute to the growing researches on neutrality in international politics by exploring particular explanations for different forms of neutrality. For this purpose, it conceptually differentiates forms of neutrality according to their degree of institutionalization, i.e. permanent neutrality and non-alignment, and explains the factors leading states to adopt one form or the other. Based on existing theories of alignment behavior, the thesis formulates two explanations of neutral status: a domestic-level explanation and an explanation emphasizing ideational factors. These explanations are then applied to the cases of Ukraine and Turkmenistan. Whereas the former has followed a policy of non-alignment, the latter has adopted a permanently neutral status. Accounting for these differences in neutral status, the study demonstrates the relevance of domestic-level and ideational factors.
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Explaining the extent of the EU’s implementation of UN-mandated conflict management efforts: comparing the cases of Libya and Mali
(Tartu Ülikool, 2023) Märtens, Mihkel; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
In conflict management, the United Nations possesses a central role, but it relies on states and regional organizations to fulfil its mandates. One of such regional organizations, which partakes in UN-mandated conflict management efforts, is the European Union. Although declaring support for the UN through the promotion of effective multilateralism, the extent of the EU’s implementation of UN-mandated efforts varies. Against this background, this study seeks to find out, what explains this variation. More specifically, it explores how two factors - coherence and leadership of member states – affect the extent of the EU’s implementation of UN-mandated conflict management efforts. In order to identify, which of the two factors better explains varying extent of the EU’s implementation of UN-mandated conflict management efforts, a comparative study is constructed to empirically research the EU’s involvement in implementing UN-mandated conflict management efforts in the Mali War from 2012 onwards and the Second Libyan Civil War between 2014 and 2020. Document analysis is used to determine the relevant UN mandates and the subsequent extent of the EU’s implementation of UN-mandated conflict management efforts, meanwhile a combination of qualitative content analysis of speeches and statements together with document analysis is used to determine the leadership and coherence of EU member states. Whereas in the case of Mali, the EU implemented UN-mandated conflict management efforts to a complete extent, the extent of the EU’s implementation of such efforts was partial in the case of Libya. Identifying the presence of coherence and leadership of member states in both cases, the study concludes that although the coherence of member states does explain a varying extent of the EU’s implementation of UN-mandated conflict management efforts, leadership of member states does not, at least not by itself. The results of this thesis shine light on why the EU’s extent of implementation of UN-mandated conflict management efforts can vary, in addition to indicating problematic areas for decision-makers in the EU who strive for the EU being a promotor of effective multilateralism on the global stage.
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Follow the leader: U.S. hegemonic leadership and the approval of the NATO-Asia-Pacific partnership by Central and Eastern European countries
(Tartu Ülikool, 2024) Stepanova, Diana; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
NATO’s recent partnership expansion into the Indo-Pacific region came as a surprise in the sense that it implies a strategic opening that is not easily explained considering the strategic preferences of CEE countries and their interest in keeping the strategic focus of NATO in Europe. Despite this, these countries approved the partnership framework. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate why CEE countries supported NATO's initiative. This thesis aims to determine the reasons for CEE countries' approval of NATO's shift towards strategic opening towards Asia. To answer this question, the thesis relies on the realist literature on hegemonic leadership within alliances, from which it derives the hypothesis that smaller allies are willing to agree to alliance strategies that are not in their direct interest if there is hegemonic leadership in the context of strategic choices. In the studied case this means that U.S. hegemony inside NATO might account for why CEE states approved the partnership although it contradicts their strategic interest in NATO focusing on Europe. To empirically test this explanation in the context of the CEE approval of NATO's adoption of the Asia-Pacific partnership, a qualitative content analysis was conducted using strategic concepts, statements, interviews, and press releases of policymakers regarding the approval of the partnership framework and the U.S. role in the ap-proval process in three selected CEE countries - Estonia, Poland, and Hungary. The analyses revealed that Estonia, Poland, and Hungary approved the strategic opening of NATO towards Asia-Pacific and the presence of U.S. hegemonic influence that is seen in considerations and accommodations of U.S. interests, following them, and keeping the US involved in their de-fense, in the calculations of Estonia and Poland. However, the analysis revealed that the Hungar-ian example showed that there was no US hegemonic influence. Still, there was Chinese influence in the calculations of strategic choices, therefore suggesting that this topic needs further investiga-tion. However, this cannot be considered a hegemonic influence, since did not involve intra-alli-ance dynamics due to the absence of China in NATO. I conclude that hegemonic influence could explain the approval of alliance strategies by small countries that are not in their direct interest.