Browsing by Author "Talving, Liisa"

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Economic conditions and incumbent support: when and how does the economy matter?
(2016-10-18) Talving, Liisa; Ehin, Piret, juhendaja; Vassil, Kristjan, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond.
Akadeemilisest kirjandusest on teada, et majanduse ja valimistulemuste vahel on tugev seos. Valijad peavad võimulolijaid riigi majanduse eest vastutavaks: valitsusparteide toetus kasvab, kui majandus kosub, ning kannatab, kui majandusel läheb kehvasti. Paraku ei ole aga kõikide valimiste tulemused ühtmoodi majandusest tingitud. Majanduslik hääletamine esineb sageli, kuid mitte alati ega igal pool, ja pole päris selge, miks see nii on. Hiljutine finants- ja majanduskriis näitas selgelt nende kahe nähtuse vahelise seose ebastabiilsust. Kriisi ajal koges valdav enamik läänemaailma riikidest sügavat majanduslangust, mis klassikalistest teooriatest lähtudes peaks viima tõsiste poliitiliste tagajärgedeni. Mitmed Euroopa valitsusparteid saidki valimistel armutult lüüa, ent mitmetel teistel õnnestus oma positsioon säilitada või seda isegi tugevdada. Majandusliku hääletamise ebastabiilsus oli ka selle väitekirja kirjutamise ajendiks. Kui seost majanduse ja valimiste vahel ei eksisteeri, siis on valijate võimalused võimulolijaid majandustulemuste eest vastutavaks pidada piiratud, mis omakorda jätab viimastele vabad käed ellu viia neile sobivaid poliitikaid, isegi kui need ei ole kooskõlas avaliku huviga. Kui aga demokraatliku vastutuse mehhanism toimib, siis on kodanikel võimalik osaleda otsustusprotsessides ja kaasa rääkida selles, milliseks riigi poliitikad kujunevad. Väitekiri käsitles majanduslikku hääletamist kolmest aspektist. Esmalt uuris töö majanduse ja poliitilise toetuse vahelise seose üldist tugevust. Analüüs, mis põhines mahukal küsitlusandmestikul erinevatest Euroopa riikidest ja ajahetkedest, näitas, et majanduslikel kaalutlustel on tugev mõju valijate poliitilistele eelistustele. Riigi majanduse käekäik on arenenud riikide kodanike jaoks oluline – seda jälgitakse ja võetakse oma poliitiliste eelistuste kujundamisel arvesse. Teiseks uuris töö, mil moel mõjutas majanduslikku hääletamist finants- ja majanduskriis ja leidis, et statistiline seos majanduse ja hääletamise vahel jäi sarnasele tasemele, isegi ajal, mil Euroopat raputas viimaste aastakümnete tugevaim majanduslangus. See viitab asjaolule, et majandusliku hääletamise mehhanism on välistele šokkidele võrdlemisi immuunne. Viimaks tõi töö välja uudse dimensiooni majanduslikus hääletamises, suunates fookuse majanduspoliitikale. Analüüs näitas, et majanduskriisi järel pöörasid kodanikud fiskaalpoliitikatele enam tähelepanu kui varem, ja mitmel pool karistati valitsusparteisid karmide kärpemeetmete eest. Veelgi enam, majanduspoliitikad on tavapäraste tegurite kõrval kerkinud üheks keskseimaks teguriks, mis indiviidi valimisotsust määravad, viidates asjaolule, et majandusliku hääletamise fenomen on muutunud mitmetahulisemaks.
Estonia: Empowering the Executive
(Palgrave Macmillan Cham, 2022-12-02) Talving, Liisa; Ehin, Piret
Estonia successfully curbed the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020. The government reacted relatively rapidly to the crisis outbreak, declaring an emergency situation on March 12 and introducing measures such as closing schools, banning public gatherings, and restricting movement across borders. Saaremaa, the largest island and the epicenter of the virus, was isolated. A 2 billion-euro aid program was launched, including labor market support, sickness benefits, and tax incentives. Adjustment to the emergency situation was alleviated by Estonia’s advanced digital society. Levels of public compliance with the restrictions were, in general, high. While the government’s handling of the crisis is considered successful overall, the emergency situation facilitated the concentration of power in the hands of the executive. In a situation where normal parliamentary and societal debate were hampered, the government pushed through legislative proposals concerning migration, environment, and social affairs that extended beyond the immediate needs of the pandemic and that undermined democratic values.
Has economic voting changed? A comparative analysis of Italy and other Southern European countries
(2017) Talving, Liisa; Braghiroli, Stefano
The financial and debt crisis caused severe economic and political instability in Italy. Economic hardship led to an array of unpopular policy measures, giving rise to public dissatisfaction and civil unrest. These dramatic developments call for a re-assessment of the basic link between the economy and political support. This article uses the European Election Studies (EES) Voter study data from 2004, 2009 and 2014 to investigate patterns of economic voting. We assess the magnitude of economic effects in Italy in comparison with other Southern European countries that in recent years have witnessed similar economic and political turmoil. The results point to a strong impact of economic conditions on incumbent support in Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain. However, retrospective voting weakened amid the crisis, with Italian voters in particular placing less blame for economic conditions on the national government than before. Importantly, we also find a considerable increase in prospective voting in Italy. Despite the nation’s past economic experience, voters were willing to reward Renzi’s government when they believed that its policies would bring economic improvement.
Second-order effects or ideational rifts? Explaining outcomes of European elections in an era of populist politics
(Cambridge University Press, 2020) Ehin, Piret; Talving, Liisa
This article seeks to enhance our understanding of the European Parliament (EP) elections in an era of populist and anti-European Union (EU) politics. Specifically, it aims to evaluate both the conventional second-order elections theory as well as an alternative approach that regards EP elections as an arena for conflict between liberal-democratic Europeanism and populist, extremist and euroskeptic alternatives. It does so by deriving a series of hypotheses from both approaches and testing these with party-level data from all EU member states in the context of 2019 EP elections. Our results challenge both explanations. Party size is a robust predictor of electoral performance in EP elections, and its effect is moderated by electoral system design. While large parties lost votes across the EU, their losses were more pronounced in countries where national legislatures are elected under plurality or mixed systems. We find no evidence of incumbent losses or electoral cycle effects. Party-level populism, extremism and euroskepticism did not systematically predict electoral performance but party ideology appears to have moderated the effects of incumbency and party size. Incumbency was associated with vote gain among populist and far-right parties but not other parties, and the effect of size also varied across party ideologies. In sum, these results suggest that vote fragmentation in the 2019 EP elections is partly explained by electoral system design, while it was not driven by the desire to punish political incumbents. Populist and far-right parties in power appear to be particularly immune to punishing behavior often associated with EP elections.
Still second-order? European elections in the era of populism, extremism, and euroskepticism
(2021-02) Ehin, Piret; Talving, Liisa
The continued relevance of the second-order elections (SOE) theory is one of the most widely debated issues in the study of European Parliament (EP) elections. While the theory has been criticized from many angles, the recent success of populist, extremist, and Eurosceptic parties raises additional questions about the applicability of a model that depicts EP elections as a lowstakes affair revolving around national issues. This article tests the SOE model with party-level data from all 175 EP elections held between 1979 and 2019. While turnout in EP elections remains well below participation rates in national elections, the 2019 EP elections were marked by a significant reduction in the average turnout gap. Across all election years, party size is the most potent predictor of electoral gains and losses in EP elections. Incumbency is associated with electoral losses in most EP election years. These effects are moderated by the electoral cycle and the electoral system in some but not all years. The expectation that the SOE model performs worse in countries with fragmented party systems was not confirmed. All in all, the SOE model continues to wield significant explanatory power in both the West and the East.