Modelling storm surge conditions under future climate scenarios: A case study of 2005 January storm Gudrun in Pärnu, Estonia

Abstract

A case study based on the January 2005 storm Gudrun parameters has shown good agreement between observations and results obtained from atmospheric and ocean models. In methodology used by us for simulating „future storm Gudrun“ no increase in the intensity of this particular future storm was found, but instead a slight decrease was noticed. When tropical cyclones get stronger with higher sea surface temperatures then for extratropical cyclones this does not apply. Instead, smaller air temperature differences in the polar front may lead to weaker extratropical cyclone formation. However, for drawing broader conclusions, a number of different storm cases should be simulated.