Ukraine and Georgia since “color” revolutions: factors that influence foreign policy change

Abstract

A substantial volume of analysis was generated among scholars and theorists around the foreign policy orientation of Georgia and Ukraine. The foreign policy of these post-Soviet countries was determined as respective of both, external and domestic challenges at hand. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the countries’ geopolitical status quo has been challenged, and broader opportunities for the newly independent states have come to exist. The relevance of countries’ domestic strategy and the outcome of foreign policy is the spotlight of this research. This study makes an effort to fill the gap in social science literature about foreign policy orientation change in transitional democratic, post-Soviet countries-Ukraine and Georgia. These are countries that have aspired to the same geopolitical goal but because of significant external and domestic challenges were prone not to the same consequences in foreign policy. Ukraine, with its weak and corrupt state institutions, mostly pro-Russian political class, economic and energy dependence on Russia, can be considered as a case more likely to change geopolitical orientation. At the same time Georgia, weak and once dependent on external power but, with a mostly different type of development, recently altered its pro-Western government on a new, with a declared conformist policy concerning Russia, but it still has not deviated from the chosen, Western path. The thesis attempt to define what affects the foreign policy orientation of Ukraine and Georgia after Color Revolutions. The paper tries to answer the following questions: Why the change occurred in Ukraine but not in Georgia? What made Ukraine swing like a pendulum in foreign policy and Georgia-remain relatively stable? Which domestic political factors were decisive for the foreign policy change in Ukraine and is keeping Georgia on the chosen path? How did domestic politics contribute to the foreign policy change? This comparative case study of Ukraine and Georgia considers domestic political factors after two Color-Revolutions in Ukraine (2004) and Georgia (2003); The expected core idea of this thesis studies particular factors that affect foreign policy orientation of chosen countries. With comparative analyses, there is an attempt to enrich the foreign policy change phenomena of dependent states and assess its probability