Migration and EU enlargement attitudes: analysis of public opinion

Abstract

The European Union's consideration of further enlargement has reemerged as a significant geopolitical question following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, raising questions about the factors that influence public support for admitting new member states. This study investigates the relationship between public attitudes toward migration and support for EU enlargement, examining whether negative perceptions of migration correlate with lower willingness to expand the Union. The research employs multilevel logistic regression analysis utilizing Standard Eurobarometer survey data from all 27 EU member states, examining three dimensions of migration attitudes: perceptions of intra-EU mobility, attitudes toward immigration from outside the EU, and beliefs about immigrants' societal contributions. The empirical analysis confirms a significant relationship between migration attitudes and enlargement support, with attitudes toward external immigration demonstrating a stronger association with enlargement preferences than perceptions of immigrant contributions. Pronounced regional variation emerged in this relationship, revealing an East-West divide where Western European countries displayed strong positive correlations between favorable views of external immigration and enlargement support. In contrast, Central and Eastern European nations exhibited weaker or even negative correlations. The findings indicate that while addressing migration concerns is necessary for building enlargement support, broader attitudes toward European governance and integration play a more determinative role in shaping citizens' preferences regarding the Union's expansion. These results contribute significantly to post-functionalist integration theory by demonstrating how cultural and identity considerations increasingly structure European integration attitudes, providing crucial insights for policymakers navigating the complex terrain of public opinion as they consider the EU's future institutional boundaries.