Russia’s role in the South Caucasus – Possible implications of Armenia’s accession to the Eurasian Economic Union for regional security

Abstract

Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) assumes that it is possible to identify certain regional “clusters” regarding common security threats. Essential elements of a Regional Security Complex (RSC) are an anarchic structure, boundary, social construction (patterns of amity and enmity) and polarity (the distribution of power). RSCs are durable, but not permanent features in the international system.

This thesis focuses on Russia’s role in the post-Soviet RSC. Russia is the central regional power, but at the same time it also holds the status of a great power, which makes it special. It is argued that the South Caucasus can be seen as a subcomplex of this RSC. The Russian influence on the security dynamics in this region is analyzed against the background of the recent developments in Armenian-Russian relations, which serve as a case-study. The thesis aims to assess the impact of change caused by Russia’s interference in the South Caucasian subcomplex.

Although Russia and the South Caucasus are part of the same RSC, the analysis shows that Russia’s role in the Armenian case follows the same logic as great power penetration (GPP). Thus, the consequences of its involvement could be similar as well and include changes in patterns of amity and enmity or in the distribution of power. They could also lead to changes in the boundary, which means the subcomplex could “break apart”.

Eventually, the study comes to the result that by looking at the Russian-Armenian relationship, it is possible to argue that the distribution of power in the region has already shifted to some extent. Patterns of amity and enmity still remain a uniting element, but they could also be affected by future developments. If geopolitical tensions continue, the boundary could be changed as well, but Armenia’s mere decision for the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is not a sufficient indicator for this. Russia’s role in the post-Soviet RSC can be characterized as very dominant; the RSC is clearly centred on Russia. However, subcomplexes with their own regional security dynamics continue to exist, albeit the post-Soviet RSC is, indeed, possibly (again) in danger of a Russian “takeover”.