Voting along the ethnic line? Ethnic minority voters in Estonia and Lithuania

Abstract

This thesis aims to examine the prevalence and predictors of minority ethnic voting in Estonia and Lithuania. The empirical results confirm that ethnic minorities in these two countries indeed vote as a homogenous group. Specifically, they are more likely to vote for an ethnic minority party, compared to their ethnic majority counterparts. In addition, it is found that minority ethnic voting is more prevalent in Estonia during the review period. Seeking to identify variables that can predict such ethnic voting behaviour, this thesis also tests two theoretical models, namely the social identity model and the rational model, with individuallevel survey data from Estonia and Lithuania. Drawing upon these two established theoretical models, six hypotheses are formed and tested. The findings reveal that language serves as a powerful predictor of ethnic voting behaviour in both Estonia and Lithuania. Moreover, aside from language, an individual’s placement on the left-right political spectrum appears to be another strong predictor of ethnic voting, with left-wing ethnic minority voters being more likely to cast their vote along ethnic lines. These findings contribute to a better understanding of minority voting behaviour in Estonia and Lithuania.