E-valimistest osavõtmise tegurid ja kogemus. E-valijate võrdlev analüüs 2005. aasta kohalike valimiste ja 2007. aasta Riigikogu valimiste põhjal
Kuupäev
2007
Autorid
Ajakirja pealkiri
Ajakirja ISSN
Köite pealkiri
Kirjastaja
Tartu Ülikool
Abstrakt
Kirjeldus
Purpose of the study
The purpose of the study was to provide comparative analysis to the voting experience of
Estonian e-voters during the local elections in fall 2005 and spring 2007. The aim was to
identify a social and political profile of the e-voter.
Specific research questions where as following:
Q1: What changes occur in e-voters characteristics in 2005 and 2007 survey results?
Q2: Are there any evidences allowing a prediction of a future behaviour of the e-voter?
Q3: What characteristics are statistically significant in describing e-voters?
Method
Empirical data was gathered using the internet-based questionnaires in both 2005 and 2007
surveys. Questions were presented to the public during one week after the election day. Total
number of e-voters who participated in electronic elections was 9287 in 2005 and 30243 in
2007. A selection of 324 answered the questionnaire in 2005 and 1206 in 2007. E-voters
were invited to answer the questionnaire through the online advertising in the Estonian largest
newspapers online editions and information letters were sent to mailing lists including
academic, governmental and private institutions. Additionally a representative survey was
carried out among 802 respondents in which specific questions regarding e-voting was
presented to the general public.
Key findings
Despite the growing number of e-voters they have remained technically competent, skilful at
using computers and e-services and they have excellent access to the internet. Valuations
regarding their computer skills remain high even among those who had negative experiences
with e-voting system. Technical obstacles (such as the instalment of the ID-card reader or
entering the e-voting system) seem not to have an effect of e-voters self-reflexive valuations
about their computer skills. Contrary to our predictions, technological barriers are in 2007
even less significant than in 2005. Moreover, instrumental characteristics are improved
despite the growing number of e-voters. These characteristics are statistically most significant
in describing the e-voter.
The level of political participation has decreased in 2007 as a result of a broader sample and a
larger number of e-voters. Therefore, results regarding political participation are more
balanced with the overall population. However, those who e-voted are still with certain
political preferences and they are convinced that voting is something not to be missed even
despite the poor weather.
Additionally, the 2007 results have shown a significant amount of those who had not
participated in elections if e-voting had not been present. Namely had we not had e-voting
opportunity in 2007 elections the total turnout would have been 0,7% smaller resulting in
approximately 4000 votes. If the future number of e-voters increases, the number of those
who participate in e-voting because it is an comfortable way, the turnout could increase even
more, predictably to 2,4% in 2009 (approximately 13 000 votes). Contrary to the general
academic discussion, Estonian experience in 2007 has shown that e-voting has a moderate
impact on actual voter turnout. It is important to note, however, that those who participate
because of the new voting method are politically disengaged and therefore the engagement
effect is purely mechanical – it is a mass effect attracting those who would not cast their vote
normally.
E-voters considered their e-voting experience positive and they would like to have an e-voting
opportunity in future ballots. Even traditional voters are convinced that e-voting should be
provided by the government in future ballots. The risks associated with the credibility of the
e-voting system predicted by many technical experts were not significant. Since the
experience was positive and the rate of credibility relatively high, the e-voter agrees to
recommend e-voting to his friends and acts as reference partner to new e-voters. In fact, 2007
results confirm that the network of e-voters has increased significantly – approximately a half
of the responded e-voters know up to five or more other e-voters. This situation allows the
government to adopt methods of affiliate marketing in future electronic elections and this may
support increasing number of e-voters. Very likely this effect will have an impact on the
general growth of voting activity.
Märksõnad
H Social Sciences (General)