"Did we go too far?": Post-incumbency electoral performance after partnering with populist radical right in Europe 1999-2023

Abstract

This thesis examines the electoral consequences for the political parties that decided to collaborate in executive coalitions with Populist Radical Right Parties (PRRPs) in Europe. It addresses the need to understand the implications of these political alignments, given the growing frequency of such coalitions. Using a large-N quantitative analysis and linear regression model, this research analyzes electoral data from eleven European countries to explore the strategic implications of coalition formation with PRRPs. Even though the study reveals that there is no consistent impact and direction on overall electoral costs for forming such coalitions, the effect changes depending on a party's position on the left-right spectrum. The thesis finds that right-leaning parties face uncertain immediate electoral fates post-coalition, while left-leaning parties will perceive a negative electoral impact when entering a coalition with PRRPs. The findings have important implications for the study of multi-party competition as they challenge expectations regarding accommodative strategies and the efficiency of the cordon sanitaire. The research highlights the complex dynamics of ideological alignment, voter behavior, and the challenges of balancing core values against the need for strategic coalition-building.