Understanding the foreign policy of Kazakhstan in response to the Russian invasion in Ukraine during the first year of the War (2022)

Abstract

Kazakhstan and Russia are known as traditional allies. Russia proved its position as a reliable ally for Kazakhstan, as it helped to deal with January unrest in 2022 through the involvement of CSTO. However, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Kazakhstan showed a gesture of lack of support for Russia. This thesis aims to unfold the causes of Kazakhstan’s lack of support to Russia in the war in Ukraine, as its decision might have a significant cost towards Kazakhstan’s energy sector. Moreover, this study also explores the factors that contributed to Kazakhstan’s policy and attempts to identify Kazakhstan’s effort to lessen its dependency on Russia in the energy sector. This interpretative research employs a qualitative approach with a thematic analysis method. This research incorporates several concepts such as prospect theory (as the leading theory), neoclassical realism, the concept of fear, energy security and diplomacy, and the multi-vector approach. The causes of Kazakhstan’s policy will be observed from three reference points: status quo, aspiration, and emotion. The research findings shed light on the logic and perceptions of Kazakhstan’s decision-makers behind its decisions when dealing with Russia’s aggressive action.