Understanding the increase in the size of annual military parades in democratic states: the example of Poland and Estonia

Abstract

This master’s thesis examines military parades, with the aim of identifying factors that explain the increase in size of annual military parades in democratic countries, a phenomenon that has not been previously studied. Guided by the research question “What explains the increase in size of military parades in democratic states?”, this study tests two key hypotheses: if democratic backsliding, then increase in size of the annual military parade in democratic states; and if increase in aggressiveness of neighbour, then increase in size of the parade in democratic states. Using process-tracing, the suitability of these hyptheses are analysed by examining Estonia’s Independence Day military parade and Poland’s Armed Forces Day military parade in the period of 2007-2024, focusing on the key moments when the increase in size of the annual parade occurs. The findings of the conducted study indicate that although some fluctuations in the size of military parades in democratic states are natural, the most significant increases are often deliberate and can be explained through the interests of the political leadership, especially in the context of democratic backsliding. Additionally, the study highlights that for democratic countries, the main target audience remains the domestic electorate. Even in the case of an increasingly aggressive neighbour, the increase in size is aimed at providing a sense of security for citizens, rather than being a credible deterrence against a potential adversary.