Complex interdependence and peace: a comparative analytical study of Ukraine, Georgia and CIS member-states from 2000-2014

Abstract

The idea of the research project is to examine the possible correlation between economic interdependence and security. The following thesis will look at the members of Commonwealth of Independent States in a dyad with Russia over the last decade in order to determine the variables, that accordance with the independent variable, i.e. economic interdependence can affect security in the mentioned dyads. Already from the 1950s, liberals in international relations along with liberals in economics have described the benefits of trade and economic interdependence, making it too costly to engage in a conflict. Globalization theorists have evolved the concept and economists tend to say that the world is (at least in financial terms) very much interdependent. This all should make conflict a very costly option for a state and enforce pacifism between states and in the international arena in general. But economic interdependence can also be of asymmetric nature, making the costs of a conflict very high to one counterpart and thus reducing the threat of a conflict to the second counterpart. The thesis will look at how economic interdependence along with other relevant variables can affect conflict or perhaps prevent it from happening in the first place. A theory is presented and it is tested through corroborative examples of military disputes between Russia and the members of the Commonwealth of Independent States.