Authoritarian learning and diffusion: protests in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in 2022
Date
2023
Authors
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Journal ISSN
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Publisher
Tartu Ülikool
Abstract
In this thesis I study the authoritarian learning and authoritarian diffusion processes
that served as a basis for some of the repressive measures taken by Uzbekistan and
Kazakhstan in response to mass protests in 2022. The thesis attempts to address the question
as to ‘whether different types of authoritarian regimes are more amenable to learning or learn
in different ways’ (Hall and Ambrosio 2017,154). It focuses on authoritarian regimes
specifically in Central Asia. This study uses process tracing and content analysis in order to
analyze the diffusion and learning mechanisms during and in the aftermath of the mass
protests. I formulate 2 mechanisms for learning and diffusion that are not mutually exclusive
and usually go in parallel in the Central Asian context. I analyze newspaper articles from
news media outlets such as Radio Liberty Kazakh and Uzbek Services, Eurasianet, and
Gazeta.uz. In addition, I analyze citizen journalism source, Youtube channel БАСЕ to make
the process tracing more accurate. My findings are 1. Authoritarian learning and diffusion
processes go in parallel, mostly diffusion framing authoritarian learning processes in Central
Asia. 2. Kazakh and Uzbek regimes engage in authoritarian diffusion by initially framing
mass protests as of socio-economic nature and instantly switching to framing them as a
disorder organized by terrorists. 3. Diffusion process within the regional security organization
(CSTO) context is more nuanced and needs to fit into the objective of fighting three evils:
extremism, separatism, and terrorism. 4. Kazakh and Uzbek regimes engage in authoritarian
learning when they base their calculations on when to switch to a terrorist threat narrative on
the previous learning success or failure cases. 5. Kazakh and Uzbek regimes engage in
learning from each other and domestic learning.