Just transition as a political strategy: just transition initiatives and citizens’ climate policy preferences in the U.S.

Abstract

This thesis empirically investigates whether just transition initiatives, designed to ease the socioeconomic impact of decarbonization on fossil fuel-dependent communities, can influence public support for climate policies in the United States. Against the backdrop of a politicized climate change discourse and opposition from fossil fuel communities, the study explores whether measures with justice targeting these communities can mitigate resistance to climate policies. Using data from the Climate Change in the American Mind (CCAM) survey and funding data on two federal just transition initiatives, this research applies a quantitative method across U.S. census regions to analyze shifts in citizens’ policy preferences before and after the just transition initiatives took place. Results suggest that the medium and highly funded regions had a smaller increase in policy support relative to low-funded regions. Thus, the effectiveness of just transition initiatives as a strategy to overcome climate policy opposition is yet to be seen. The findings highlight the need for more targeted, long-term, and consistent implementation and contribute to the field by suggesting future research directions.