Development of CNN-Based Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Energy Systems

dc.contributor.advisorTkaczyk, Alan Henry
dc.contributor.advisorDam, Florentin
dc.contributor.advisorAakenes, Ulf Roar
dc.contributor.authorKurylenko, Oleksandr
dc.contributor.otherTartu Ülikool. Loodus- ja täppisteaduste valdkondet
dc.contributor.otherTartu Ülikool. Tehnoloogiainstituutet
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-31T07:33:33Z
dc.date.available2021-05-31T07:33:33Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.abstractIn this work, two deep learning models based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are developed for one-day-ahead hourly electricity consumption forecasting for the next calendar day. One-day-ahead electricity consumption forecasting is done to perform baseline load evaluation for the assessment of Demand Response (DR) performance and to predict the availability of flexibility products. Using electricity consumption time series data for three regions in Norway, the developed CNNbased models are compared to four industry-standard baseline models (Asymmetric High Five of Ten, Similar Profile Five of Ten, Average, and Daily Profile). Additionally, comparisons are made to a Naive model and an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, which includes Fourier terms. Three evaluation metrics are used to estimate the models’ performance. A detailed description of the methodology, work pipeline, and results is provided. The conducted experiments were successful in developing and applying the CNN-based models to the problem of one-day-ahead hourly electricity consumption forecasting for the next calendar day. The developed CNN and combination “CNN + Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)” models showed the best performance results among the predictive models which employ the Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO) strategy to forecast 24 hours ahead. The Daily Profile model showed the best performance among models which cannot forecast 24 hours ahead or do not necessarily employ the MIMO strategy. It is worth noting that the Average model showed the best performance in the baseline load evaluation among all the considered models. However, the Average model is only a reference comparison which does not actually perform forecasting, but rather uses post-event data. It can be concluded that the work was successful in developing and applying the CNN-based models to short-term load forecasting in energy systems, especially since the developed CNN and CNN+LSTM models outperformed other similar forecasting models. Two different paths could be chosen for future work: one that intends to explore more and improve the CNN-based models developed in this work, and the one which aims to explore new CNN-based architectures.en
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10062/72116
dc.language.isoenget
dc.publisherTartu Ülikoolet
dc.rightsembargoedAccesset
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ee/
dc.subjectkonvolutsioonilised närvivõrgud (CNN)et
dc.subjectpikk lühiajaline mälu (LSTM)et
dc.subjectühe muutujaga aegrea prognoosimineet
dc.subjectmitme muutujaga aegrea prognoosimineet
dc.subjectelektri tarbimineet
dc.subjectelektri nõudluset
dc.subjectConvolutional Neural Network (CNN)en
dc.subjectLong Short-Term Memory (LSTM)en
dc.subjectunivariate time series forecastingen
dc.subjectmultivariate time series forecastingen
dc.subjectelectricity consumptionen
dc.subjectelectricity demanden
dc.subject.othermagistritöödet
dc.titleDevelopment of CNN-Based Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Energy Systemsen
dc.title.alternativeKonvolutsioonilistel närvivõrkudel põhinevate mudelite arendus lühiajalise koormuse prognoosimiseks energiasüsteemideset
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesiset

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