The limits of war for hegemonic influence: responses to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

Abstract

On February 24, 2022, the Russian Federation launched the largest land war in Europe since the Second World War against its neighbor, Ukraine. While a fair amount of literature regarding the war has begun to emerge, the way in which traditionally Russia-sympathetic Ukrainian political actors responded to the invasion has still largely gone overlooked. Moreover, this discourse is revealing of the effect that Russia’s invasion had on its own political influence in Ukraine overall. In this research, discourse expressed by 12 traditionally Russia-sympathetic Ukrainian political actors in response to the 2022 invasion is explored in the context of Russia’s behavior as a global hegemonic actor. The responses of these political actors are categorized in consideration of their reconceptualizations of political identity, physical actions, and levels of potential opportunism. The results of this analysis offer compelling evidence indicative of a large reduction in Russian influence over its traditionally sympathetic partners in Ukraine as a result of its invasion, with the notable exception of having successfully established a loyal local political and administrative elite in some occupied regions of Ukraine. However, this suggests a dramatic decline in Russian influence in Ukraine overall, which may result in a firmer commitment by Russian policymakers to continue the war until reaching the perception of having secured their objectives.