Towards the Estonization of EU foreign and security policy?

Abstract

This thesis examines how the EU’s framing of Russia as a threat converged with Estonia’s foreign and security policy discourse between 2014 and 2024. It contributes to broader research on how small states’ framings resonate with EU-level discourse during periods of geopolitical disruption. Without seeking to establish causality or direct influence, the study investigates whether Estonia’s long-standing framing of Russia as a systemic threat became more aligned with EU discourse following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Estonia is selected as a case study due to its stable characterization of Russia as a revisionist and existential threat to European security, coupled with its emphasiz on sovereignty, democracy, and legal accountability. The theoretical framework combines Europeanization and constructivism, focusing on norm diffusion and discursive alignment. Methodologically, the study employs qualitative framing analysis based on Entman’s four dimensions, problem definition, causal interpretation, moral evaluation, and policy recommendation, applied to selected Estonian and EU annual speeches and strategic documents from 2014 to 2024. The findings reveal that while Estonia’s framing remained stable throughout the period, EU discourse shifted sharply after 2022, adopting more assertive language, attributing causality directly to Russian leadership, and articulating responses that mirrored Estonia’s framing. This shift is interpreted not as direct uploading but as discursive convergence driven by contextual resonance in a moment of crises. The study concludes that small states can contribute to EU foreign policy discourse not through institutional power, but through consistency, credibility, and norm-based argumentation that align with the Union’s evolving priorities.