The role of infectious disease in the intensification of armed conflict: the relations between patrons and proxies during the Coronavirus pandemic

Abstract

The role of infectious diseases (IDs) and their effects on interstate and intrastate conflicts is one of the subjects of academic discussion (see CSIS & CBACI, 2000; Peterson, 2002; Ide, 2020; Mustasilta, 2020). The existing studies about infectious diseases and armed conflicts propose several explanations for how the former causes the latter (see CSIS & CBACI, 2000; Peterson, 2002; Ide, 2020; Mustasilta, 2020). However, most of the academic pieces miss the analysis of the possible intervening and controlling variables in the causal mechanism between disease and conflicts (see CSIS & CBACI, 2000; Peterson, 2002; Ide, 2020; Mustasilta, 2020). The paper aims to identify the intervening and controlling variables that play a key role in intensifying the modern conflicts during infectious disease pandemics. For this purpose, the paper will compare four conflicts at the time of the Coronavirus pandemic: the Libya civil war, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the Colombian civil war, and the civil war of the Philippines. The study will do a chronological analysis of the events and data of each of the abovementioned conflicts. By analyzing both qualitative and quantitative data, the paper will propose a comprehensive understanding of the reasons for conflict intensifications before and during the pandemic. The research results reveal that the political revisionism of some patrons and proxies has a decisive role in intensifying the conflicts during the pandemic. The paper finds that those conflicts which contain patrons and proxies with revisionist aspirations are more likely to be intensified during the pandemic than those that do not contain patrons and proxies at all. The analysis of the role of infectious disease pandemics on armed conflicts may contribute to understanding the role of other global crises like the Coronavirus in escalating the wars.