Rahvusvaheliste suhete ja regiooni uuringute õppekava magistritööd – Master´s theses

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Alliance durability and intra-alliance security dilemma: a case study of the U.S.-Japan alliance in the light of rising China
(Tartu Ülikool, 2018) Pachomcik, Oksana; McNamara, Eoin Micheál, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
In recent years, the East-Asian security order has been witnessing a number of disturbances stemming from increased assertiveness of regional security actors, such as North Korea and, to a lesser extent, China. More specifically, the escalation of tensions between China and Japan over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands has called into question the very viability of the U.S. “hub and spoke” alliance system in the region, with the 60 year old U.S.-Japan alliance at its core. As a relic of bipolar Cold War great power competition, today the alliance faces increasingly complex and uncertain security environment, which effectively challenges the very foundations of the widely celebrated trustworthiness and durability of the security ties between the two nations. Against this background, the thesis conducts a thorough examination of a salient episode, which has occurred and subsequently disturbed the established modes of operation within the U.S.-Japan alliance. In particular, the overarching aim of the study is: a) to uncover and assess the effect exerted by the intensification of an external threat (China) on the severity of intra-alliance security dilemma, with an eroding balance in entrapment-abandonment fears among the allies; b) how this phenomenon have manifested itself throughout the course of the Senkaku contingency; and c) what the identified anxiety-driven processes hold for the enduring quality of the U.S.-Japanese security cooperation. Grounded in theoretical expectations largely derived from the realist school of thought, the paper concludes that, chiefly consistent with realist thinking, the Senkaku crisis and the respective behaviour of allies does point to: 1) the upsurge of intra-alliance security dilemma; 2) the importance of fluctuations in triangular Sino-American-Japanese relationship for the magnitude of abandonment anxiety experienced by the weakest pole in the triangle (Japan); 3) the mitigating role of institutionalization on alliance ties plagued by twin abandonment-entrapment anxieties. Yet, the paper also discovers, contrary to Morrow’s (1991) expectations, the preservation of asymmetrical nature of the alliance, as reflected in high degrees of weaker ally’s direct dependence, in all likelihood, would be detrimental to alliance durability, due to the importance attached to acquired reputations for reliability in the minds of state leaders. Hence, it becomes evident that phenomena such as sustained alliance durability and intensity of intra-alliance security dilemma cannot be fully captured by one all-encompassing realist approach; instead, any future inquiries into the topic of alliance durability would significantly benefit from a harmonious merging of insights from different schools of thought.
How war becomes possible? : The Bush administration and its securitization of Iraq
(Tartu Ülikool, 2020) Akpan, Ndueso; Morozov, Viatcheslav, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
This thesis examines the 2003 US-Iraq war in order to provide an explanation regarding how the war became possible. Also, the thesis provides an insight into the outbreak of the war through the lens of securitization theory and how the United States (US) framed Iraq as a security threat which resulted in the authorization of emergency measures (war). This thesis is not about why the US-Iraq war happened or the motivations surrounding the invasion. In addition to how the war became possible, the study looks at how the war became legitimized by a broader public and how the use of force became the only course of action against Iraq. The thesis argues that the successful securitization of Iraq made possible/provided conditions of possibility for going to war.
The influence of domestic-level factors on system-level pressures for alignment: the case of Australia and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue - 2007, 2008, 2017
(Tartu Ülikool, 2021) Laider, Robyn Kristin; Linsenmaier, Thomas, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (hereinafter the Quad) is an alignment between Australia, India, Japan and the United States of America against a perceived threat to a rules-based order and of a rising China. With the majority of its early development occurring in 2007, the Quad ceased in 2008 due to Australia’s withdrawal, but was renewed in 2017. Given that a realist understanding of alignment formation posits that balancing occurs as a response to system-level factors, such as an imbalance of power or threat, and an expectation that a continued or even growing imbalance of threat implies continued balancing efforts, this fluctuation in Australia’s alignment decisions in a short time period presents the puzzle of this study. The aim of this thesis is, therefore, to explain the deviation in Australia’s alignment decisions in the Quad (from alignment (2007), to withdrawal (2008), and back (2017) to alignment) in the face of a perception of continuous presence of threat from China (i.e. of a continued imbalance of threat). To do so, this study turns to balance of threat for an analysis of the system-level pressures contributing to Australia’s alignment decisions; and a variant of realist thought through the works of neoclassical realists and other scholars to perform an analysis of the impact and influence of specific domestic-level factors (deemed domestic-level costs for the purpose of this thesis) on the perceived cost-benefit of external alignment by Australian decision makers. This study thereby applies these theoretical frameworks to an analysis of Australia’s alignment decisions in the context of the Quad during the period in question, through a combination of document analysis and qualitative content analysis. This thesis finds that while the perception of China’s threat remained consistent and high, it was changes at the domestic-level that triggered the back-and-forth of Australian political leaders’ alignment decisions. With these findings, this study contributes to highlighting the importance in taking domestic-level factors into consideration in the examination of balancing behaviour and alignment decisions, as well as a deeper understanding of alignment formation, and the Quad itself.
Partisan narratives on the 2016 US presidential election: a critical geopolitical analysis of Russian interference
(Tartu Ülikool, 2018) Stanley, Rebecca Evangeline; Berg, Eiki, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
As the Cold War drew to a close, the German sociologist Ulrich Beck coined the concept of reflexive modernization to describe the structural risks inadvertently produced by modernity’s progress. Through the approach of critical geopolitics, such risks radically began to transform traditional understanding of space and territory, allegedly deterritorializing traditional spatial structures, such as nation-states. However, scholars maintain that the process of reterritorialization, defined as the “inscription of new boundaries” reattaching space to “newly imagined visions of state, territory, and community,” cyclically follow deterritorialization (Albert 1991, 61; Ó Tuathail 1996, 230). Nevertheless, few scholars in the field of International Relations (IR), have seriously analyzed the process of reterritorialization. However, following the 2016 US presidential election, popular discourse in the US on Russian interference appeared to reterritorialize previously deterritorialized space, such as cyber and information space, by likening Russian hacks, leaks and collusion to the violation of the sovereign territory of the US. Thus, this thesis aims to research how US popular discourse reterritorializes Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election, while comparing and contrasting the partisan narratives constructed in light of the political polarization of the US in recent years. To achieve this goal, a discourse analysis is conducted on storylines from 30 online news articles, from three right-wing and three left-wing media outlets. As hypothesized, the analysis confirms that both partisan narratives reterritorialize previously deterritorialized risks associated with reflexive modernization, transcribe the storylines into traditional US geopolitical culture, and call for assertive measures towards Russia which violated US territory, as well as towards internal Others, which weakened US territory.
Sanctions as a foreign policy tool: comparing EU and US sanctions on the Russian Federation for Ukraine related activities
(Tartu Ülikool, 2021) Vahe, Johannes; Ehin, Piret, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Through the past decade, sanction literature has looked into different sides of this political tool, bringing a vast number of new insights to aspects such as sanction effectiveness, influence on the target by outlining numerous case studies. However, the literature has put only a small amount of attention to the initial sanction cooperation aspect, as well as sanction cohesion and complimentary rating. At the same time, the popularity of cooperation sanctions as well as implementing sanctions collaborate with two or more countries has spiked, leaving the possible effects of working coherently and together somewhat unknown. This study seeks to contribute to the sanction literature by analysing US and EU sanction formulation process and sanction regimes cohesion on case study Russia. The main aim of the thesis is to examine US and EU sanction formulation process from decision-making to enforcement and to compare sanction regimes which are imposed on Russia for Ukraine related activities from 2014. Author uses document analysis method for conducting detailed and comprehensive analysis with the set of developed indicators inspired by analytical framework of Christhopher Hill. This thesis focuses on sanction formulation, implementation timing, measures and goals in order to evaluate and explain US and EU sanction-making process, sanction regimes cohesion and complementarity on Russia. The findings of this work suggest that sanction formulation process of US and EU are different in every level of sanction making process which in return affects the sanction regimes complementarity and cohesion. In the case study Russia sanctions implementation timing, measures, specific targeted entities and sanction goals do not match with one another, therefore causing disturbances in coherence of sanction regimes which in return has an effect on the purpose of sanction imposition in the first place. The author suggests that with the raising sanctioning activities and multilateral sanctions outside of the international organization’s framework, more attention should be put on sanction cohesion and complementarity in order to achieve desired outcomes of the regimes. More specifically common framework for sanction imposition should be developed and more attention should be paid to the various aspects related to the cohesion and effectiveness of the sanction regime.
Securitization of immigration under the Trump administration: reconceptualizing the functional actor through the judiciary and the media
(Tartu Ülikool, 2018) Lille, Karl-Gerhard; Morozov, Viatcheslav, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
Shaken confidence: violation of norms as driver of expenditure increase
(Tartu Ülikool, 2024) Riether, Daniel Taylor; Kursani, Shpend, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut
The United States‘ alliances with Japan and the Philippines, built on the principle of mutual defense, stand in stark contrast to the United States‘ security cooperation with Taiwan which does not guarantee mutual defense in any capacity. Taiwan is thus quite vulnerable due its ongoing sovereignty dispute with China and its ambiguous international legal status. Yet curiously, since 2022 both Japan and the Philippines have increased their defense expenditure at a significantly faster rate than Taiwan, despite possessing much more solid security guarantees than Taiwan. Qualitative cross-case analysis of these three cases reveals two potential explanations. Firstly, within Japanese and Philippine negotiations with China, violation of confidence between leadership can be observed before the 2022 expenditure increase. This is not observable within Taiwanese-Chinese negotiations however, whose leaders largely refrained from formal contact and there was thus little trust to be broken in the first place. Secondly, as a de facto state, Taiwan‘s security situation does not benefit from international norms on non-aggression between states to the same extent as de jure states like Japan and the Philippines, and thus does not necessarily face the same pressure to respond to violation of said norms. The findings of this thesis contribute to understanding the strategic motivations of de facto states, as well as highlighting how dependency on international norms can affect diplomatic and strategic behavior.
The United States energy security: shale revolution viability in the context of implemented sustainable development and environmental stewardship dimension
(Tartu Ülikool, 2018) Zakirov, Ildar; Pataccini, Leonardo, juhendaja; Tartu Ülikool. Sotsiaalteaduste valdkond; Tartu Ülikool. Johan Skytte poliitikauuringute instituut

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