The impact of the 2021-2023 energy crisis on the nuclear energy policy of the European Union: comparative analysis on the examples of Sweden and Poland

Abstract

This thesis conducts a comparative analysis of the impact of the 2021-2023 energy crisis on the nuclear energy policies of Sweden and Poland. The crisis was triggered by supply chain disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic and exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which led to unprecedented price surges and heightened energy security concerns in the European Union. The study uses the Most Different Same Outcome framework to examine the changes in the countries' National Energy and Climate Plans before and after the crisis across six policy features. Poland and Sweden were selected as case countries representing different pre-crisis nuclear policy stances. The research demonstrates that the crisis accelerated nuclear energy developments in both countries, although through different mechanisms. In Poland, which already had a long-standing pro-nuclear policy, the crisis served to reinforce the strategic importance and urgency of its existing plans for energy security and sovereignty. In Sweden, which was on a trajectory towards nuclear power phase out, the crisis acted as a catalyst for a fundamental policy reversal, which led to a shift towards supporting significant nuclear expansion for accomplishing both climate targets and energy security goals. The analysis shows similarities in the post-crisis prioritization of nuclear for security, climate goals, and system stability, but emphasizes that the difference in the nature and extent of the policy change (reinforcement vs. reversal) is largely due to their path dependencies and the specific vulnerabilities exposed by the crisis. The findings support broader predictions regarding increased state involvement in energy sectors and the resurgence of energy geopolitics in the wake of the crisis.