Modelling volume of savings deposits

Abstract

The objective of this master’s thesis is to find an appropriate time series model to forecast the volume of private customers’ savings deposits of one undisclosed Swedish financial institution. Models such as Holt, Holt-Winters, ARIMA and ARIMAX are fitted to the data under analysis. The best performing model is ARIMA showing approximately 20% lower error measures during the out-of-sample test period compared to the best ARIMAX models.