Japan’s responses to China’s rise: soft balancing in Central Asia

Abstract

This paper analyses Japan's foreign policy in Central Asia from 1992 to 2025 through the lens of soft balancing. The initial analytical problem is the contradiction between Tokyo's official discourse's consistent emphasis on liberal values and institutional cooperation, and the intensity of Japan's presence in the region's history, which correlates with key stages in the expansion of Chinese influence. This leads to the research question: What explains Japan's engagement with Central Asian countries? The theoretical framework utilises the concept of soft balancing, as proposed by Robert A. Pape (2005) and T. V. Paul (2005), which posits that states resort to non-military instruments to limit the dominance of a superior actor indirectly. The study's methodological approach relies on process tracing, structured around a causal graph that included three mechanisms: the perception of a structural change in the regional distribution of power (M1), the implementation of soft balancing instruments (M2), and the regional effect in the form of diversification of the foreign policy orientations of Central Asian states (M3). The analysis confirmed the causal chain: the rise of China in the region shaped Japan's perception of the risk of Chinese dominance (M1), which led to the use of "soft balancing" instruments such as the ODA, the "Central Asia plus Japan" Dialogue, and the FOIP (M2), which in turn contributed to the institutionalisation of alternative cooperation formats and the strengthening of the perception of Japan as a reliable partner, thereby limiting the concentration of Chinese influence in the region (M3). It is concluded that Japan's behaviour in the region is most consistently explained by the logic of soft balancing, rather than by normative-liberal or resource-realist approaches.