Venemaa kaasmaalaste poliitika mõju ulatuse hindamine Brubakeri kolmikneksuse teooria põhjal: Narva näide

Abstract

The aim of this Bachelor’s thesis is to ascertain the influence of the Russian compatriots’ policy and the local Russian organisations on the residents of Narva (Estonia). Topicality of the issue arises from the common opinion in Estonia, according to which the so-called “fifth column” is influenced by Russian Federation. Following this, the main goal of this study is to examine the extent to which the so-called hypothetical “fifth column” is influenced by the Russian compatriots’ policy and the local Russian organisations, and how it could danger the Estonian internal security. This research could be considered as an original one because it combines earlier theoretical and empirical results of researches in conjunction with the effect of Russian organisations in Estonia, which has not been done previously. For reaching the goals of this research, in the first (theoretical) part of the research it was necessary to study the causes of the hypothetical “fifth column”. Secondly, the author of this research performed a comparative analysis of the Russian compatriots’ policy. On the one hand it describes the officially declared objectives but on the other hand it reflects on the opinions of academic researches and opinions of the Estonian Security Police. Then the research will focus on the analysis of various Russian organisations. In order to achieve all of the above-mentioned goals, the empirical part of the thesis analysed the results of a poll conducted among the residents of Narva. The analysis applied and combined both quantitative and qualitative methods. The quantitative research included an Internet-based poll and the qualitative research comprised of interviews with experts on the present topic. The whole research has been positioned into the “triadic nexus” theory by Rogers Brubaker. Due to the nature of the results of the theoretical and empirical parts, it was possible to place the results into the “triadic nexus” model which was further used to get answers to main question of research. Questions proceeding from the theoretical part of the research were answered by virtue of the empirical analysis. As to the main research question, the author claims that the Russian compatriots’ policy and the local Russian organisations have not had considerable impact on the Russian minority in Narva. The claim has been proved by two main factors. First of all, the poll analysis did not find disproportionable relations to the Russian compatriots’ policy nor the local Russian organisations. Secondly, the author’s claim has been confirmed by experts’ opinions who analyzed the results of poll. Despite there being no direct impact on the Russian minorities, it must be kept in mind that the citizens of Russian Federation and the non-citizenship holders are more sensitive to the Russian compatriots’ policy. However, it should be noted about this finding that the link to Russia does not have a political shade but rather that of national identity and cultural cohesion. In conclusion it can be said that the Russian minority in Narva does not serve a risk on Estonian internal security.