Factors influencing the population's belief in victory: cases of Estonia and Finland

Abstract

This thesis investigates the factors of divergent levels of “belief in victory” between Estonia and Finland. Drawing on academic literature and expert interviews, the study examines how national identity and ethos, collective memory and political communication and rhetoric shape public morale. Findings of this study suggest that differences in belief in victory stem mainly from the unity of the population, national ethos, political communication and public involvement in national defence. While Finland`s belief in victory is bolstered by its perceived victory in World War II, Estonian population's belief is influenced by the complex legacy of the Soviet occupation – acting both as a trauma that may have a negative impact on belief and also as a unifying force against future aggression. Additionally, the full-scale war in Ukraine has also strengthened belief in victory in both countries. These insights provide a framework for Estonia to strengthen its societal resilience.