Conventional deterrence in the age of hybrid warfare: the effect of NATO’s presence on Russia’s hybrid activities in the Baltic states, 2014-2024

Abstract

The world is once again entering an era marked by uncertainty, geopolitical change, and security competition. In the changing landscape of international security, the effectiveness of traditional deterrence strategies requires a revisiting. NATO is widely considered the world’s longest standing military alliance with deterrence and defence its core task. In 2024 the total military spending by NATO members reached 1.5 trillion USD. Despite this, urgent questions are raised about the adequacy of NATO’s conventional deterrence strategy in countering hybrid warfare. This study evaluated NATO’s deterrence strategy by answering to what extent NATO’s presence affects Russian’s hybrid activity. NATO presence was measured and operationalized as the number of NATO troops, number of exercises, equipment capabilities, and defense spending. A qualitative analysis of official government intelligence reporting was done to measure Russian hybrid activity. By comparing the NATO presence and Russian hybrid activities in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania from 2014-2024 it found that NATO’s presence did not deter Russian hybrid activities, instead they increased. This thesis argues that NATO’s deterrence strategy must be modified to develop a comprehensive strategy to counter hybrid activities. It argues that differing deterrence strategies come with increased level of risks. It found that a change in deterrence strategy from deterrence by punishment to deterrence by denial creates higher risks and results in more hybrid aggression. It found that hybrid activity increased because of the changing deterrence strategy in addition to NATO presence. As Lithuania and Latvia follow Estonia’s lead and increase NATO deployments they should expect to see more frequent hybrid aggression. The Baltics, EU, and NATO should work together and factor in the increased risk that NATO presence creates, and invest in counter measures such as information and influence operations and enhanced cyber capabilities to restore deterrence.