Role competition in Central Asia? Network analysis, role theory and great power regionalism: a framework for analysis

Abstract

The present thesis develops an analytical framework that rests on three pillars: 1. Network Analysis; 2. Role Theory; 3. Neorealism. These theoretical and analytical approaches have been hitherto disconnected in IR and FPA, despite their potential for synthesis. Through a critical appreciation of each approach, the author highlights their interoperability and reconceptualizes central themes in international relations such as the agency-structure debate, the concept of power, interdependence and institutions, and the security dilemma. It comes to the conclusion that the analysis of real-world phenomena needs to take into account both material and ideational factors, since ideational and material structures are inextricably interlinked in the conduct of foreign policy. The second part of the thesis applies this analytical framework to the regional case of Central Asia, and traces how great powers have engaged in role competition between 2007 and 2022. In an interpretative content analysis, it finds 13 roles conceptualized by the United States and Russia respectively; five of them are the most salient ones. In addition, it explores the roles enacted by the European Union and China. The main finding is that the great powers engage in competitive role-play and reject each other’s role conceptions; create conflicting role expectations; and eventually find themselves in ideational security dilemmas that are partially characterized by capacity-identity gaps. Importantly, the case demonstrates the interdependence of regional subsystems through international feedback loops. Role location processes in the Central Asian network cluster contributed to the deterioration of great power relations – and conflictual great power relations shaped the regional context.