Dynamics of Armenia’s role conceptions and expectations 2018–2024: navigating EU-Russia contestation

Abstract

This thesis analyses the change of role conceptions and expectations of Armenia from 2018 to 2024, focusing on what can be seen as critical junctures that could induce role changes: the Velvet Revolution in 2018, the defeat of the Second Karabakh war in 2020 and the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Additionally, the Russian full-scale aggression war against Ukraine in February 2022 significantly altered the geopolitical landscape, intensifying the West and Russian contestation over what is considered to be in-between of these two powers. This study not only explores how a country in the region – Armenia – perceives its role in the world, the contestation of these two powers and who their partners should be, but also how changing conditions and external shocks impact the roles of a country. This examination reveals the volatility and stability of the role a country conceptualizes for itself and others. Armenia’s role was influenced by these events, leading to changes in its role conceptions and expectations regarding the EU and Russia, though not resulting in a complete U-turn. Whereas Armenia initially viewed itself as a faithful ally of Russia, considering Russia a security guarantor, this perception shifted, with Armenia seeing Russia as just another ally/partner, unable to provide security guarantees and even posing a potential threat. Throughout the time Armenia saw itself as being a European democracy and the EU as a partner in democratic development and reforms. Over time, this perception evolved, with Armenia increasingly seeing the EU as a security guarantor and with whom Armenia seeks as close relations as possible. In managing these relations Armenia saw itself in the role of a bridge and, ultimately, also as an independent actor, who has relations with everyone. Additionally, Armenia saw itself in the role of genocide preventer.